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momentum
– Momentum on the daily frame (D1) is currently in overbought territory. Therefore, the D1 momentum is likely to reverse today or tomorrow. If this reversal is confirmed, it could indicate that Wave B is coming to an end.
– The momentum of H4 framework is currently declining. We need to wait for the close of the current H4 candle to confirm. If the decline is confirmed, expect prices to continue trading sideways or falling until H4 momentum enters oversold territory.
The momentum of frame H1 now begins to reverse upward, which is opposite to the momentum of H4. Therefore, on the first half framework, we may see a short-term rebound or sideways movement until first half momentum reaches overbought territory.
wave structure
– Wave structure on D1 frame:
With the momentum of D1 in the overbought zone, we expect that wave B has entered its final stages and the market is preparing to move to wave C.
– Wave structure on H4 frame:
Wave B is currently forming an ABC pattern (red) and the price is now in the red wave C, requiring a closer analysis of the H1 framework.
– Wave structure on H1 frame:
Within the red C-wave we notice the blue 5-wave structure (1-2-3-4-5).
Based on this structure, Blue Wave 5’s targets are located at:
– 5136
– 5525
But it should be noted that the previous high broke through the top of wave 3 and reached a new high. When looking at the RSI indicator, we notice a divergence, which may indicate that Blue Wave 5 may be complete.
– Based on this data, we currently need to keep a close eye on H4 and H1 momentum for final confirmation.
Movement based on momentum
– If the price moves according to H4 momentum (bearish scenario):
When H4 momentum enters oversold territory, we need to see a breakout of the Blue Wave 4 bottom at the 4969 level.
After that, we wait for the H4 momentum to return to the overbought zone, and if the price fails to form a new high, then we look for selling opportunities.
– If the price moves according to the first half momentum (short-term bullish scenario):
If the price continues to rise and forms new highs, we will wait for the price to reach the upper target area to look for selling opportunities.
trading plan
Breakthrough scenario:
If the price falls below the 4969 level, we will be looking for live breakout trading opportunities.
– New Top Formation Scenario – Pending Sell Order (Sell Limit Order):
Sales area one:
– Entries: 5136 – 5138
– Stop Loss (SL): 5176
– First goal (TP1): 4969
– Second target (TP2): 4827
– Third target (TP3): 4640
Sales area 2:
– Entries: 5224 – 5226
– Stop Loss (SL): 5564
– First target (TP1): 5105
– Second target (TP2): 4969
– Third goal (TP3): 4827
risk management
– At this point, the range of price action is very wide, so your stop loss should be widened.
– Small account: The total risk (SL) per transaction does not exceed 5%.
– Large accounts: total risk (SL) per trade does not exceed 2%.
