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1. Momentum Analysis
Daily time range (D1)
Momentum on the daily frame is currently approaching oversold territory and is showing signs of preparation for a bullish reversal.
This suggests that the possibility of a corrective rally will continue for at least a few days until D1 momentum reaches overbought territory.
H4 time frame
H4 momentum is currently in overbought territory, which increases the likelihood of a bearish momentum reversal in the next 4-hour frame.
H1 time frame
First half momentum is currently nested and compressed within overbought territory, indicating a strong likelihood of a continued bearish momentum reversal in the first half.
2. Elliott wave structure
Daily Frame (D1)
After the last strong bearish wave, we can observe about 5 consecutive bearish daily candles, which correspond to D1 momentum preparing to reverse bullishly from oversold territory.
Therefore, the next upward move may be wave 2 or wave B in the purple Y wave structure.
This bullish wave is expected to move in conjunction with D1 momentum, so price action should be monitored for confirmation when D1 momentum enters overbought territory.
If D1 momentum enters overbought territory and price fails to make new highs, this will reinforce the case for a purple wave Y continuation.
The Y wave completion target remains at 4072 and 3761 levels.
H4 time frame
The downward wave preceding H4 can be viewed as wave 1 or wave A in the purple Y-wave structure.
The current rise is likely to be Wave 2 or B.
⚠️ If the price clearly breaks above the 4549 level and the D1 momentum is in the overbought zone, the current wave calculation situation is invalid and the entire structure must be re-evaluated.
H1 time frame
The 5 wave bearish structure (red) has been completed.
According to the Elliott Wave Theory, a correction of at least 3 waves usually occurs after the completion of 5 waves.
As D1 momentum is expected to see a bullish reversal, this corrective rally could continue for a few days if the bullish signal is confirmed on the daily close, but a break above 4549 is not expected.
Since this upward motion is likely Wave 2 or Wave B, it is expected to be characterized by:
Price moves slowly
Wave interference and momentum blur
👉 Therefore, I recommend focusing only on short-term trades at this time and avoid holding long-term long positions.
3. Resistance areas and important levels
Expected area for the correction rally to end:
4376
4405
4445
especially:
4405 and 4445 are strong resistance areas, crossing the 50% and 61.8% Fibonacci levels of the previous downward move.
These areas are great for looking for medium to long-term selling opportunities, with the goal of completing a purple Y wave.
4. Trading plan
First sales scenario
Sales area: 4404 – 4406
Stop loss: 4415
First target: 4344
Second target: 4275
Third goal: 4072
Second sales scene
Sales area: 4444 – 4446
Stop loss: 4465
First target: 4405
Second target: 4275
Third goal: 4072
