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. Classic analysis
General Trend: The stock is currently in a sharp downtrend starting from around QR33.00.
Support and resistance levels:
Main resistance: 18.40 riyals level (thick orange line), which was a previous breakout area and later turned into strong resistance.
Current support: The rebound occurs near 15.40 riyals.
Price Pattern: We noticed that the last bottom formed a mini double bottom pattern, a reversal pattern that attempts to change the short-term downward path.
2. Smart Currency Concept (SMC) Analysis
Market Structure: There has been a change of character (CHOCH) on the smaller frames following the recent rally, but the overall trend remains under the control of the sellers unless it breaks above the 18.40 liquidity level.
Liquidity: Buyer liquidity is concentrated above the last peak of 18.50 riyals.
Fair Value Gap (FVG): There is a bearish price gap (FVG) that has not yet been fully closed between the 18.40 and 19.50 levels, which is an attractive area for the price.
3. Wyckoff analysis
Current stage: The arrow is located at the end of the Markdown stage, and possibly the beginning of the Accumulation stage.
Spring: The price action at 15.40 resembles a “spring” movement (imagined breakout of the previous low followed by a quick return), which indicates quote absorption.
4. Technical indicators
RSI: Currently the “star” on the chart as it shows clear positive divergence. Price reaches lower lows while the indicator reaches higher lows (represented by the blue line “Reversal D”).
Momentum: The RSI has moved above the 50 level (currently 52.56), indicating a shift in control to short-term buyers.
5. Transaction and scene management
Base case (bullish for now):
The upside is expected to continue testing the resistance zone and FVG.
Entry point: current price (17.80 riyals) or wait for a slight decline to 17.20.
Stop Loss (SL): Close below 16.40 SAR.
First target (TP1): 18.40 SAR (orange resistance).
Second target (TP2): 19.80 riyals (to fill the price gap).
Alternative:
Failure to break through and close below 18.40 could push the stock to retest recent lows at 15.40.
8. Final evaluation
Expected success rate: 65% (supported by positive divergence strength).
Trade Type: Swinging around near-term targets, as the stock needs to break above liquid orange resistance to confirm a shift to a longer-term uptrend.
