Can Trump’s fragmented plan be put back together?

The U.S. ambassador to the United Nations has accused Rwanda of steering Africa’s Great Lakes region toward war, just over a week after Washington signed a peace deal to end decades of conflict.

US President Donald Trump hailed the agreement between President Felix Tshisekedi of the Democratic Republic of Congo and President Paul Kagame of Rwanda as “historic” and “a great day for Africa, a great day for the world.”

But the M23 rebel group said it had “completely liberated” the key city of Uvira in an offensive against the United States and European powers. Says it has Rwanda’s support. UN experts have previously accused it of “de facto control” of rebel movements.

Rwanda denies the accusations, but its presence in Washington tacitly acknowledges its influence over M23.

The rebels were not signatories to the Trump deal and have been participating in a parallel peace process led by U.S. ally Qatar.

The latest fighting threatens to further escalate an already complex conflict.

Professor Jason Stearns, a Canadian political scientist who specializes in the region, told the BBC that the view in M23 circles is that “they need more leverage in negotiations”, while the feeling in the Rwandan government is: Tshisekedi cannot be trusted.

He added that the attack on Uvira, South Kivu, “runs counter to all ongoing negotiations.”

“It seems to humiliate the US government. I’m not sure what strategic purpose that would serve,” Professor Stearns told the BBC.

The M23’s new offensive in South Kivu began days before Kagame and Tshisekedi flew to Washington last week to ratify the deal first finalized in June.

Bram Verelst, a Burundi-based researcher at the Institute for Security Studies (ISS), a think tank, said the attack appeared to be an attempt to force Burundi to withdraw from supporting troops fighting rebels and Rwanda in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo.

He pointed out that Uvira, located at the northern end of Lake Tanganyika and only 27 kilometers (17 miles) from Burundi’s capital Bujumbura, is strategically important because there are at least 10,000 Burundian troops in South Kivu.

“Uvira was Burundi’s gateway into eastern Democratic Republic of Congo for the movement of troops and supplies. It has now been cut off,” Mr Verest told the BBC.

He added: “It appears that many Burundian troops are withdrawing, but it is not clear whether all contingents will withdraw.”

Yale Ford, Africa analyst with the American Enterprise Institute’s Critical Threats Project, pointed out that Uvira, with a population of about 700,000, is the last major stronghold and military hub of the Congolese government in South Kivu.

he added M23 may now set up a parallel administration in the cityand use its military achievements “as a bargaining chip in peace negotiations.”

As for the DRC government, it has yet to acknowledge its latest military setback but said “the seriousness of the situation is heightened by the current confirmed risk of fires in the area”.

Burundi has been a natural ally of the Democratic Republic of Congo for many years due to its hostility to Rwanda.

Each side accuses the other of supporting rebel groups seeking to overthrow their respective governments.

The two neighbors share a similar linguistic and ethnic makeup – with Tutsi and Hutu communities often vying for power – and both suffered horrific genocide.

But unlike Rwanda, which is led by a Tutsi president, Burundi has a Hutu majority in power.

The Burundian government is worried that if the “M23” movement consolidates its presence in South Kivu, it will strengthen the power of the Burundian rebel group “Red Tabara”.

The group, based in South Kivu province and made up mostly of ethnic Tutsis, has attacked Burundi in the past.

The M23 movement said it “does not look beyond our borders” in an apparent attempt to appease Burundi’s fears.

“The goals of our struggle are peace, the protection of people, the reconstruction of the state of the Democratic Republic of the Congo and the stability of the Great Lakes region,” the group added.

Burundi has closed its border with the Democratic Republic of Congo but still allows people to enter its territory after security checks, according to Verest.

Aid agencies say about 50,000 people have fled into Burundi in the past week.

Burundian troops, along with Congolese troops and allied militias, struggled to stop the rebel advance on Uvira, but the city fell “without much fighting,” Verest said.

He said the fall of Uvira would hit Burundi’s already struggling economy as the country has been severely short of foreign exchange and fuel and relies heavily on eastern Democratic Republic of Congo.

The M23 movement began making significant gains earlier this year, seizing Goma, the capital of North Kivu province on the border with Rwanda.

At the time, South African troops were deployed to help the Democratic Republic of Congo’s troops but were forced to withdraw after the M23 movement seized the city in January.

Soon after, the rebels captured the next big city in eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo, Bukavu, the capital of South Kivu province.

Operation Uvira follows rebels breaking through defenses of the Democratic Republic of Congo’s army, allied militias and the Burundian army.

Professor Stearns said the M23 was estimated to have more than 10,000 fighters, but Rwandan troops were likely to “flood” into the recent offensive to capture Uvira.

“They were able to defeat the enemy at least because the Rwandan army was very disciplined, and I think discipline is more important than manpower,” he said.

“The conflict in recent days has also featured extensive use of drone technology by both sides, but the Rwandans have made greater use of it than the Congolese,” he added.

It appears to be in deep trouble.

The U.S. ambassador to the United Nations blames Rwanda for the recent fighting.

“As we have seen in recent weeks under President Trump, instead of making progress towards peace, Rwanda is leading the region toward more instability and war,” Mike Walz told the Security Council meeting.

An earlier statement issued by the United States, the European Union and eight European governments went further, saying the “M23” movement and the Rwandan Defense Forces (RDF) should immediately cease “offensive operations” and Rwandan troops should withdraw from eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo.

Professor Stearns said policy experts he spoke to were “confused” by the timing of the capture of Uvira.

“In fact, as they were signing the peace agreement in Washington, the Rwandan army was massing and then invading the area around Kamanyola on the border with Rwanda and then advancing towards Uvira,” he added.

Rwanda’s foreign ministry has not responded to claims that its troops are stationed in South Kivu, but said ceasefire violations and fighting could not be “blamed” on Rwanda.

It accused the DRC and Burundian troops of bombing villages near the Rwandan border and said Burundi had “massed” nearly 20,000 troops in South Kivu province to support the DRC army.

It added that it was now clear that the Democratic Republic of Congo “was never ready to commit to peace” and that although Tshisekedi attended the ceremony in Washington, it was “as if he was forced to sign” the peace agreement.

The Democratic Republic of Congo’s government has leveled similar accusations against Kagame, saying he “deliberately chose” to abandon the Washington Agreement and undermine Trump’s efforts to end the conflict.

Professor Stearns said the US-led peace process was currently on a “difficult path and may have run into trouble”.

He noted that the success of the agreement depends on the DRC army launching an operation to disarm the FDLR militia, whose members participated in the 1994 genocide in Rwanda and which Kagame’s government views as a continuing threat.

However, Professor Stearns said he could not currently see the DRC army launching such an operation.

The peace deal also envisions economic cooperation between the Democratic Republic of Congo and Rwanda, including hydropower, mining and infrastructure development – which the United States hopes will pave the way for increased investment by American companies in the mineral-rich region.

Professor Stearns said he also could not see this happening while Rwandan troops remained in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo and fighting continued.

He added that it was his understanding that the parallel peace process in Doha, led by the Qatari government and aimed at mediating a peace agreement between the M23 movement and the government of the Democratic Republic of Congo, was also currently on hold.

He added: “After the massive M23 offensive, it is difficult to imagine that the Congolese would now return there.”

Professor Stearns said Tshisekedi was under “very serious” pressure from the public for failing to deliver on numerous promises to end the fighting in the east.

He said Tshisekedi may also face pressure from parts of the military, with which his relationship has become strained after the general’s arrest on suspicion of corruption and setbacks in the east.

He added that Tshisekedi is counting on the United States to pressure Rwanda to withdraw support for the M23 movement.

“It will be difficult for the Congolese army to respond.

“It is now in the hands of various peace brokers, particularly the United States and perhaps Qatar and other donors,” the academic said.

“What remains to be seen is how much they care about ending this conflict and how much political capital they are willing to spend.”