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First: Overview
Gold’s short-term trend is upward. Fundamental and technical factors supported gold prices to stabilize and rebound after falling. The market will witness a number of important events and data next week, and volatility is expected to increase. It is recommended to mainly buy on dips and sell cautiously on highs as a secondary strategy.
2: Main fundamental factors
Support for Dip Buying: Gold’s strong rebound from the lows suggests strong buying interest at lower levels.
US dollar trend: The slight decline in the US dollar provides gold with room to rebound.
Geopolitical situation: Events such as the US-Iran nuclear negotiations may cause risk sentiment to fluctuate.
Next week’s key topics:
U.S. non-farm payrolls data, consumer price index and other economic data.
China social financial and inflation data.
Progress in Japan’s general election.
Economic prosperity indicators of the world’s major economies.
Heavy activity can cause large market swings. Therefore, data and event trends should be monitored closely.
Technical analysis:
trend structure
Monthly chart: Prices hit the five-period moving average and then stabilized, indicating the continuation of the long-term bullish trend structure.
Weekly Chart: A bullish candle with a long lower shadow indicates buying power at the price lows and the potential for continued rebound at weekly levels.
Daily chart: Price is currently trading within a consolidation range between 4600 and 5100. A breakout of this range is needed to open a new trend.
2. Main price levels
support:
Short term: 4920-4870
Strong support: 4660-4655
Resistance:
Short term: 5060-5080
Mid-term: 5220-5240
Long term: 5440-5600
3. Short-term rhythm (hourly chart)
The price rose sharply in a V-shape from the low of 4655, broke through the 4800 mark, and finally closed near the middle line of the Bollinger Bands (near 4830).
If the price stabilizes above 4830, the future upward target is 4906→4942→4970→5010.
If the price falls below 4830, a retest of the 4760-4720 support area is likely.
fourth. trading strategy
Bullish Strategy (Basic)
Admission requirements:
It fell back to 4890-4870 and then stabilized, allowing the opening of large buying orders.
A strong breakout and stabilization above 5010 may warrant opening a small buy position.
Target: 5010←5060←5220.
Stop loss: below 4850.
Bearish Strategy (Minor)
Admission requirements:
There were signs of stagnation during the rise to 5060-5080 points, allowing small selling positions to be opened.
A direct break below 4830 and a weak rebound may warrant opening short-term sell positions.
Target: 4920 → 4870.
Stop loss: above 5090.
Risk warning
A busy week of data and events could bring sudden fluctuations. Accurate position sizing and stop loss management are crucial.
If the price of gold breaks through the 5060 level significantly, short positions should be treated with caution as this may accelerate the price of gold to slide towards the 5220-5240 level.
If the key support level of 4650 is exceeded, the market structure will weaken in the short term and the trend will need to be re-evaluated.
in conclusion
Market positioning: The bullish pattern remains unchanged in the medium and long term, and a correction phase after consolidation and bottoming appears in the short term.
Our trading advice: buy when prices first fall, sell when prices are high, and keep an eye out for subsequent breakthrough opportunities.
Key monitoring points: 4830 (short-term strong/weak dividing line), 5080-5100 (key breakthrough area), 4890-4870 (retracement support area).
