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Brian XAUUSD – Safe-haven demand exists, but price remains below POC sell zone.
Gold held on to modest gains during the European session, supported by ongoing geopolitical risks in the Middle East. This safe-haven demand has helped XAUUSD recover from the 5,000 psychological zone, but sustained buying remains limited and prices remain below key supply areas. This puts the market in a “trade zone” environment, which is best achieved using volume profiles (POC/VAL/VAH) and structural confirmations.
Technical Structure (H1/H2) – Volume and Liquidity Profile.
Sales area POC 5335–5340.
This is the main distribution area for files. If the price shifts into this area, expect supply to increase and the likelihood of rejection to be higher unless the market explicitly accepts a price above that.
Resistance is near below the downtrend line.
Price remains trapped below the short-term trendline. In order to achieve a higher quality recovery, XAUUSD needs to break out and stabilize above this structure. A rapid move without a sustained close is still a corrective price action.
POC liquidity tested.
The chart shows that the market has tested the central liquidity pockets and reacted. This often results in both sides reaching equilibrium and pulling stops before the next trend leg forms.
Support ranges: ~4960.617 (strong support) and ~4905.504 (psychological zone).
This is the main defensive area. If the price loses this range, the decline may accelerate while liquidity below the range decreases.
VAL buying areas 4779–4784.
Deep value. This area will only come into effect if the market decisively breaks out and starts accepting lower prices.
Trading scenario.
Scenario 1: Trend line breakthrough → supply rises.
Condition: Breakout of the downtrend line and stabilization above nearby resistance, with a clean close.
Trajectory: Wide circle, 5335-5340 is the main take-profit/take-profit area.
Scenario 2: Rejection below the trend line → turns to support.
Condition: Tested resistance/trendline but failed to continue (clear rejection).
Path: Spin down to equilibrium, pressure towards 4960 → 4905 if buyers are not defensive.
Scenario 3: Breakthrough → Deeper value turnover (risk profile).
Situation: 4960-4905 are missing and values cannot be recovered during testing.
Trend: On the downside, 4779-4784 is the main absorption area.
Generalization.
Geopolitical risks continue to keep safe-haven demand lower than gold, but technically XAUUSD will only turn positive after confirming a breakout and accepting above this structure. Until then, the rally remains vulnerable to a sell-off and the focus remains on the reaction in key value areas.
Follow Brian’s channel for clean XAUUSD levels, volume profile scenarios, and daily market-ready updates.
