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Brian XAUUSD – CPI is the Catalyst: Gold Stuck Between Supply and Value
Gold (1 hour) is in high-impact decision-making territory ahead of the CPI release. During such trading sessions, prices typically move first in search of liquidity and then react to value before expanding. Clean edges here are performed around the volume outline area rather than guessing the direction.
Macro factors: CPI will determine pressure on USD and gold
If core CPI (monthly/annual) is higher than expected, the market may rule out the possibility of a Fed rate cut, the dollar may strengthen, and the gold rally may be quickly sold off at resistance levels.
If inflation falls faster than expected, expectations will ease and gold may sustain its recovery, boosting the buying environment from value support.
Technology Map (One Hour): Volume Profile Area
Upper Sell/Supply Zone (Reaction Zone): The upper resistance line (where short selling/reactive selling is expected).
5194 Level (Confirmation Level): Once the market confirms weakness and remains below 5194, continued decline is more likely.
Medium Support (VAL Reaction Zone): “Buy around VAL” zone for short-term reactive buying if price falls back to value.
Primary Buying Area (POC): 5094–5097 — Key absorption/value area. If prices come down further, this could be a prime area to base yourself in.
Trading scenario (clear and executable)
Scenario 1: High CPI → Sales Engagement
The price entered the sell zone and was rejected.
Confirmation: back below 5194, closing weakly.
Forecast: Spin to VAL area, possible to POC 5094-5097.
Scenario 2: Low CPI → Buy the dip and hold
The price remains in the VAL reaction zone and rises with acceptance.
Confirm: Recover and stay above nearby resistance.
Expectation: Extension to the next level of resistance.
Scenario 3: Liquidity flows to POC, then reverses trend
The price dropped to POC 5094-5097, showing strong absorption, before regaining value.
Expectation: Making higher lows and pushing back into the overhead sell zone.
generalize
CPI will determine whether gold prices are constrained by the strength of the U.S. dollar or continue to recover. Technically, the focus is simple: sell interactions in the upper supply zone and only buy and confirm at value support levels, specifically POC 5094-5097.
Follow Brian to learn about XAUUSD’s daily CPI updates, clean dot plots, and ready-to-use scenarios.
