Bitcoin’s long, tortured road to the bottom of the Circle

Bitcoin (BTCUSD) completed a bullish crossover on the 1M STOCH RSI this month. Many believed this indicated that the bear market cycle had bottomed out, but was actually the beginning and an encouraging sign after a decline of more than -50%.

However, history shows that BTC is likely to remain bearish for a long and painful period following a STOCH RSI crossover. In the first three bear cycles, the market bottomed 214-275 days after the bull crossover.

Therefore, according to this model, Bitcoin’s new “path of torture” is likely to last until at least October 2026. As for how low the bottom can go, technically it should hit the 1W MA350 (red trendline) around $50,000, if not lower (1W MA450), based on the parabolic growth model, which will reach lower MAL levels every cycle.

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