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Gold’s fundamentals remain supportive of a long-term uptrend. Escalating geopolitical tensions between the United States and Venezuela over the weekend, coupled with purchases by major central banks, stockpiling by mining companies and further easing of monetary policy by the Federal Reserve, will help fuel this bullish momentum. All in all, the recent decline in gold prices is a prelude to a stronger uptick.
On the one hand, the previous sharp rise may have prompted some traders to take profits or rebalance their portfolios. On the other hand, the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME Group), one of the world’s largest commodity trading platforms, has increased margin requirements for gold, silver and other metal futures contracts.
This means traders need to deposit a larger margin when opening a position. Although this measure is designed to reduce the risk of default when the contract is settled, it will also limit speculative buying to a certain extent. In addition, geopolitical risks have been the main driving force behind the rise in prices of traditional safe-haven assets such as gold. In times of heightened market uncertainty, gold has become a safe haven for funds due to its strong value-preserving properties.
I believe the main factors affecting gold’s performance in 2025 are: a very tense geopolitical and economic environment, a weak dollar and slightly lower interest rates.
Future gold prices will depend more on the interaction of these two macroeconomic factors.
The current gold price reflects the market’s expectations for macroeconomic consensus to a certain extent. However, the economy rarely actually performs as expected, meaning gold prices could deviate significantly in the future. If the U.S. economy contracts slightly and the Federal Reserve further cuts interest rates, and the U.S. dollar continues to weaken, gold will be supported; however, if the economic and political environment improves significantly, gold prices may fall, possibly by 5% to 20%. Some are also warning that the pace of gold’s price rise is “unsustainable” after doubling in two years. Commerzbank expects gold prices to rise to around US$4,400 in 2026; although some independent analysts are optimistic about the continued rise in gold prices, they also believe that the market talking about “bubbles” is not necessarily a bad thing. Bubbles do not necessarily mean an immediate explosion, but remind investors that volatility will increase. In short, the sharp rise in gold prices in 2025 has changed its characteristics as an investment asset: gold is no longer just a single safe-haven asset, but an “important strategic asset” for global funds to hedge geopolitical risks, policy uncertainty and fluctuations in the US dollar system.
Individual investors are very optimistic, and Wall Street investment banks generally maintain a positive outlook. The basic logic is that the central bank will continue to purchase gold heavily, the expectation of lower real interest rates will not be fully reflected, and macroeconomic uncertainty will continue to exist. Although the gold price trend in 2026 is unlikely to repeat the “acceleration straight line” trend in 2025, driven by multiple supporting factors, the possibility of reaching new highs is still high. Market expectations for gold prices to exceed $5,000 are gradually evolving from a minority view to a broader consensus.
Gold price analysis for next Monday:
Markets this week have been rocked by rising shares of Chinese remittance companies and concerns about tightening global liquidity. After gold prices hit the 4402 mark, they encountered new pressure and fell. Although the weekly chart barely held the key moving average support level, and the daily chart also showed resilience at the 4270 mark, the overall momentum was obviously insufficient. The market is currently in a wide-range oscillation pattern with “upper limits” and “bottoms”, waiting for new signals to increase trading volume to break the equilibrium state.
Looking at the four-hour chart, we see gold prices falling again on Friday. Although the losses were limited, a break below the key support level of 4,300 could open the way for further losses. The short-term moving average is currently trending downward, forming resistance. The MACD is below the zero line, and the downward momentum has increased. If the price weakens first, you need to pay close attention to the support level in the 4300-4305 area. Technical backlash may occur on first contact. This week it tested the 4300 level twice and rebounded to 4400 twice, representing a structural adjustment after a sharp decline. As I highlighted on Friday, this wave of gold has formed a head and shoulders bottom pattern. Holding above 4400 will trigger another bullish wave with targets at 4500 and 4550. Given the current trend, we should not try to predict the top. However, if it fails to hold above 4400, it will be regarded as a lower consolidation after a sharp decline.
Therefore, this prediction may hold true next week. The current closing price is around 4330. Will next week’s opening trend be opposite to this week’s opening trend? Given the positive news for safe-haven assets over the weekend, I think there’s plenty of potential for an immediate rebound. In short, the short-term gold trading strategy for next Monday recommends mainly going long, supplemented by shorting on rallies. In the short term, the main focus is on the resistance level 4400-4405 and the main support level 4270-4300. Pay attention to developments.
