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. Classic Analysis and Market Structure
General trend: There has been a sharp decline since the 106 riyal level, but recently the price has entered an area of occasional volatility, trending towards a bottom corrective rise.
Support and resistance levels:
Main resistance: 84.00 – 86.00 riyal area.
Main support: 76.00 riyal area (near all-time lows).
Price Pattern: We note a mini double bottom pattern forming at the 76.50 level, which supports the idea of a temporary reversal.
2. Smart Currency Concept (SMC) Analysis
Market Structure: The price achieved a positive CHoCH (Change of Nature) after breaking above the 79.50 riyal level, which signals the cessation of downside bleeding and the beginning of the consolidation phase.
Order Block: There is an area of strong demand between 77.50 and 78.50 riyals (purple area on the chart).
Fair Value Gap (FVG): There is an undiscovered price gap around the 86.00 and 92.00 levels, which is a magnetic price target.
Liquidity: Liquidity has pulled off the weak lows of 76.00, with prices now targeting buyer liquidity nearby.
3. Wyckoff analysis
The current price is in the accumulation stage.
The recent break below 77.00 followed by a quick rebound represents a spring move, a move that fools sellers before a bullish move. We are now in the testing phase and the beginning of a corrective rise.
4. Technical indicators
RSI: This indicator shows a clear positive divergence (as shown by the blue line at the bottom, called a reversal-H) as the price reaches a lower low and the indicator reaches a higher low, which is a very strong reversal indicator.
Volume: We noticed an increase in volume in the bottom rebound area, which confirms the entry of buying power.
5. Transaction management (technical recommendation)
Based on the data above, current opportunities favor corrective buying:
Ideal entry point: between 80.00 and 80.90 SAR (or wait for a test return in the 79.00 area).
Stop Loss (SL): hourly close below 77.00 SAR (breakout of last bottom).
First target (TP1): 84.50 riyals.
Second target (TP2): 88.00 riyals.
6. Expected scenarios
Base case (70%): Gradual rise continues to test the resistance area at 84.00 and then 86.00 due to the formation of positive divergence and CHoCH.
Alternative scenario (30%): Breakout of the 76.00 level with a strong momentum candle, which cancels the idea of consolidation and opens the door for further decline to the 72.00 level.
7. Final evaluation
Expected success rate: 65% – 70% (due to the strength of the disagreement and its compatibility with the SMC requirement area).
Trading type: Very suitable for short- to medium-term swing trading, and may be suitable for scalping during intraday speculation at support levels and nearby resistance levels.
Note: Technical analysis is a tool to assist decision-making. It does not directly determine whether to buy or sell. The final decision depends on your risk management.
