Amazon and Google win AI capex race – but what’s the reward?

At times, it can seem like AI companies are racing to see who can spend the most money on data. Anyone who builds a data center will have a lot of computing, thinking goes, and thus will be able to create the best AI products, which will guarantee success in the coming years. There is a limit to this idea – traditionally, businesses win by creating More information money and use Less – but it is proven to be very attractive to the big tech companies.

If that’s the game, Amazon seems to be winning.

The company announced in its earnings on Thursday that it will generate $200 billion in spending in 2026, through “AI, chips, robotics, and low-Earth satellites.” This comes from $131.8 billion in capex in 2025. It’s tempting to say that the entire capex budget is AI. But unlike many of its competitors, Amazon has a very important plant, some of which are adapted to be used by expensive robots, so the non-AI investment is not easy to shake off.

Google is very close. In his earnings on Wednesdaythe company said that the revenue of 175 billion dollars and 185 billion dollars in 2026 comes from 91.4 billion dollars last year. That’s more than what the company spent last year, and more than most of its competitors.

Shave, where report last weekestimated $115 to $135 billion in capex spending in 2026, while Oracle (which became the post child of AI infrastructure) about $50 billion. Microsoft doesn’t have an official preview for 2026 yet, but the most recent figure for the quarter was $37.5 billionwhich amounts to about $150 billion, assuming it continues. It’s a notable increase, and one that has led to investor pressure for CEO Satya Nadella – but it still puts the company in third place.

From within the world of technology, the logic here is simple. The evolving capabilities of AI will transform supercomputing into a scarce resource of the future, and only the companies that manage their resources will survive. But while Google, Amazon, Microsoft, Meta, Oracle and others are eagerly preparing for the desert of the future, their suppliers are not satisfied. Every company saw its value plummet as investors lost billions of dollars, and companies that spent the most money fell the most.

Most importantly, this is not just a problem companies like Meta who haven’t considered their way to create AI. It’s everyone – even companies like Microsoft and Amazon that have a solid cloud business and a straightforward way to make money in the AI ​​era. These figures are too high for investor comfort.

Business ideas aren’t everything – and at this point, they won’t change the company’s mindset. If you believe that AI is about to change everything (and the argument is pretty tough at this point), you’d be a fool to change because Wall Street jumped on it. But going forward, big tech companies will be under pressure to scale back their AI ambitions.