ABC correct Cy another

XAUUSD — Wave 5 has completed and entered the ABC correction cycle
Summary of plans for next week

Gold ended its fifth wave with very strong upward momentum and is now entering an ABC correction phase, completing the Elliott Wave structure.
The main strategy for next week is to sell (SELL) in the 4316-4320 Fibonacci resistance area, and then buy (BUY) in the large liquidity area near 4215.

1) Elliott Wave: Why we evaluate that the market has entered an ABC wave

The recent uptrend has signs of the end of its fifth wave:
Strong impulse, long candle followed by quick bearish reversal (take profits/withdraw liquidity).

When the fifth wave is complete, the market typically enters an ABC correction to rebalance supply and demand and complete the Elliott Cycle.

The ABC structure is shown in the attached figure.

Wave A: Price falls to the 4259-4262 area (the first reaction area in a pullback).

Wave B: Price rebounds to the 4316-4320 area (Sell Fibonacci area on the chart).

Wave C: Further decline to the 4215 area (POC + the large liquidity area formed last weekend) – the main target for the pullback.

2) Important price areas (key levels)

Sell ​​Zone (B Wave): 4316 – 4320 (Sell Fibonacci)

Nearby support levels (A-wave reaction): 4259 – 4262

Intermediate Support: 4238 – 4241

Main target/liquidity: 4215 (POC + large liquidity pool)

Scene cancellation level: 4191
If this level is breached, the technical structure will have to be re-evaluated.

3) Trading scenario next week
Scenario 1 (Priority): Sell when wave B is completed

Sales: 4316 – 4320

Stop loss: 4326 (clearly breaks through the selling area)

TP1:4262

TP2:4240

TP3:4215

logic:
Wave B is usually just a bounce in a corrective trend. Selling from the correct Fibonacci zone can yield a better risk-to-reward ratio (R:R) than selling late in a move.

Scenario 2: Buy as a reaction to the end of Wave C

Buy: around 4215 (preferably when there is significant price interaction)

Level: 4191

TP1:4240

TP2:4262

TP3: 4290 – 4310 (if the structure reverses, the uptrend returns)

logic:
The 4215 area represents a POC and a large liquidity area, and often acts as a “magnet” to end the C wave before the market enters a new cycle.

Alternative scenario: If it breaks through 4320 and stabilizes above

If gold prices break above the 4320 level and close with an H1 candle significantly above that level, the ABC correction may be delayed and gold’s rise may extend towards higher resistance areas.

in this case:

Don’t hold on to a sell trade.

Change to a callback mentality and buy with the trend.

4) Fundamental background: Rising volatility is consistent with the adjustment stage

Philadelphia Fed President Anna Paulson said the rate cuts had “removed” some protections against labor market risks.

She also confirmed that the labor market was under stress but not yet collapsed, prompting the Fed to take a cautious stance. In such an environment, gold tends to show strong moves to gain liquidity before continuing to follow the technical structure.