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XAUUSD H1 Weekend Key Trends
Gold is yet to confirm continued bullish momentum following yesterday’s price reaction, prioritizing short-term correction scenarios before reassessing trends
🔴 Priority Scenario—Preferred Scenario
A sales strategy based on high-volume regional reactions, compatible with the current short-term structure
Main sales areas: 4332 – 4342
📌 Technical basis: According to the distribution of trading volume, these areas are areas with concentrated trading volume, and the price is prone to distribution reactions after a weak rebound.
📊 Dynamic Forecast: The price rebounds into the high volume area of the distribution and then continues the corrective movement
🔑Daily goals:
Heading towards the 4275 area, which coincides with the Fibonacci retracement zone and lower support
📌 Situation Management:
They should only be held for short periods of time and sold. If the price crosses and stabilizes above 4342, you should reduce your risk and avoid holding sell orders.
🟢Alternatives – Alternatives
Monitor price reactions in deeper support areas to evaluate trading opportunities
Strong support area: near 4275
Technical Background: This is the intersection area between structural support and Fibonacci retracements where defensive buying forces may emerge.
📊 Dynamic forecast: If the price reaction in this area is good, the market may enter accumulation mode again
🔺Main reason
In the first half of the year, the early rebound did not maintain an obvious upward structure, indicating that purchasing power was weak.
The volume profile helps identify areas 4332 – 4342 as different entry points for sell scenarios based on reaction
Against the backdrop of weekend markets typically lacking breakout momentum, the 4275 area plays the role of a reasonable correction target
🔻 Overall background and medium-term outlook
Although short-term fluctuations tend to correct, large institutions remain optimistic about gold’s mid- to long-term prospects. Goldman Sachs expects gold prices to reach $4,900 per ounce by the end of 2026, supported by strong demand from central banks and the positive impact of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cut cycle.
This suggests that the short-term decline may be more of a technical correction than a reversal of the long-term trend.
