First: technical analysis
• Price is moving within a medium-term ascending channel.
• The price is currently close to the upper boundary of the channel and momentum is clearly weak.
• Price failed to establish a clear close above the 4,360 – 4,380 area on several occasions.
• Horizontal fluctuations within the channel indicate an allocation phase rather than a release phase.

Technical summary:
The overall trend is upward, but the upward momentum is currently weak and there is a possibility of a correction.

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Second: Elliott Wave Analysis
• We think price ends when:
• Bullish pulse wave on small frame (1-2-3-4-5).
• Current price range:
• Composite corrective wave (ABC or WXY).
• The current wave looks like a B wave or an X wave (weak bounce).

The most likely wave scenario:
✔️ Correcting declines before completing larger gains.

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Third: Time Analysis
• Prices stay in the same price range for an extended period of time.
• Temporal volatility without price progression = close to strong volatility.
• The next move is usually the opposite of the last weak wave.

Time summary:
We are at a timing decision point that favors a short-term decline.

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Fourth: Numerical/Quantitative Analysis
• High frequency area:
• 4,330 – 4,340 (trade saturated)
• Numerous breakouts above 4,360 failed multiple times.
• Psychological Numbers:
• 4,350 – 4,380 = Buy Exhaustion Zone

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Fifth: Fundamental Analysis
• The market is currently in the following state:
• Expectations (monetary policy – US data – bond yields).
• There is currently no strong supportive news to drive a dramatic breakout.
• Any current strength is considered short-term speculation.

Basic points:
Fundamentals do not support an immediate strong advance, but instead favor a pullback.

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Sixth: Price Action
• Equal/lower high.
• There is a clear rejection candle near the supply area.
• False breakout without a strong close.

This is clearly an act of distribution.

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Seventh: Support and Resistance Levels

Resistor:
• 4,350 – 4,380 (very strong supply area)
• 4,400 (high mental resistance)

support:
• 4,300 – 4,290 (first support level)
• 4,260 – 4,240 (critical support)
• 4,200 (primary support)

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Eighth: Technical model
• Bullish Channel + Oscillator = Bullish Channel Distribution
• Probability:
• Rising wedge on small frame (negative pattern)

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Ninth: Digital Model
• Repeated price rejections in the same area = digital burnout pattern
• Price reaction was weak despite active trading.

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Tenth: Harmonic Model
• Formation probability:
• Bearish Gartley or Bat near 4,360 – 4,380
• The model is not yet complete, but is starting to take shape.

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Eleven: Supply and demand areas

Sales area:
• 4,350 – 4,380 🔴 (Strongest)
• 4,330 – 4,345

Purchase area:
• 4,260 – 4,240
• 4,200 – 4,180

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Twelve: Attention point
• Bottom mounting points: 4,290
• Top mounting points: 4,360
• A breakout of either of these with a clear close will determine the next trend.

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Area Thirteen: Pivot Area
• Current Pivot Zone: 4,300 – 4,330
• where trading = volatility
• Get out of trouble = powerful action

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🔔 Trading recommendations

🔻 Preferred scenario (short term):

If the price rises to the 4345-4375 area and any signals appear, be careful to adjust your selling
Stop loss:
The closing price was significantly higher than 4,385
• Target:
1️⃣ 4,300
2️⃣ 4,270
3️⃣ 4,240

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🔺 Alternatives (in case of cancellation):
• Close above 4,385 for 15 minutes or one hour
• We then cancel the sale and wait to retest the purchase.

🟢 Purchase from Retest Support

Purchase area:
• 4,295 – 4,307

Stop loss: should be close to $10, no more
• 4,270 (break of support + break of trendline)

Target:
• 🎯 First goal: 4,335
• 🎯 Second goal: 4,360
• 🎯 Third goal: 4,380

➡️This is the most worth buying nearby right now

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