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XAU/USD: Sell when OB is bearish, buy when OB is bullish


XAU/USD: Sell when OB is bearish, buy when OB is bullish

gold OANDA:XAUUSD



1. Background and Price Structure (M30)

• Prices are on a downward correction after previous strong gains.
• In the pullback zone, bearish EQH + ChoCH → signs of weak buying flows, favoring “bounce selling” in the short term.
• Price is still compressed below the downtrend line, so the short-term bias remains downward until a clear breakout occurs.
• The 4,275 support level is key: if it holds, a technical rebound is possible; if it falls below, it would open a path to lower demand areas.

2. Key level (according to drawing chart)

• Bearish OB (Sell Zone): 4,308 – 4,312 (≈ 4,311.888) → Supply Zone + Trendline Crossover, best to monitor for selling on rallies.
• Support area: 4,272 – 4,276 (≈ 4,275.451) → Central support area that creates bounce/rebound movement.
• Intermediate Support/Target: 4,247.624 → Next target if below 4,275.
• Bullish OB (Buy Zone): 4,223.400 – 4,205.983 → Strong demand zone, where sweeps and reversals are expected.

3. Trading plan (with clear conditions)
Scenario 1 – Sell on bounce in bearish OB (main scenario)

• If the price rises to 4,308 – 4,312 and there is a rejection reaction:

strong candle

bearish swallow

Or ChoCH is short M15/M30 again

• It is best to sell based on corrective trends.
• Goal 1: 4,275
• Target 2: 4,247
• TP3: 4,223 (near bullish OB)
• Expiration: M30 closed above 4,318 and stayed above it → Stop selling idea.

Scenario 2 – Buy deeply on the bullish OB (important scenario to seize the big rally)

• If price breaks above 4,275 with clear M30 candle and declines to 4,223 – 4,206.
• Waiting for liquidity sweep + reversal signal:

Pull the pin candle at OB

Bullish Swallow

Or ChoCH is bullish (M15/M30)

• After confirmation, purchase priority.
• Target 1: 4,247
• Goal 2: 4,275
• Goal 3: 4,308
• Failure: M30 closed below 4,198 points → wait and see.

4. Risk management considerations

• Do not sell when price approaches 4,275 (support area).
• Do not buy prematurely until the price reaches the bullish OB and it has not yet been confirmed.
• If price recovers strongly above the trendline +4,312, the preference will shift to “buy on bounce” rather than “sell on bounce”.



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