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1. Momentum
Daily time range D1:
Momentum on the daily chart shows signs of a bearish reversal, but we will have to wait for the close of today’s candle to confirm this reversal. This confirmation is very important in judging whether the market has formed a mid-term top.
H4 time frame:
Momentum on the H4 frame is currently in oversold territory and is setting the stage for a bullish reversal. When this reversal is confirmed, expect a technical bullish rally lasting 4 to 5 H4 candles.
H1 time frame:
Momentum remains bearish in the first half and is heading towards oversold territory. We will wait for price to reach this area while confirming a reversal in bullish momentum, which could lead to a short-term corrective upside in the H1 frame.
2. Elliott wave structure
Daily time range D1:
If the D1 momentum confirms a bearish reversal at the close of today’s candle, the price could be at the top of the Violet X wave.
After the X wave is completed, the market may enter the violet Y wave, which may form a flat correction.
→ The expected target of the Y wave is near the 3888 mark.
H4 time frame:
Price is currently moving within the green wave 5. As this wave completes, we will also see Wave C and Wave X complete on a larger time frame.
With H4 momentum in oversold territory, short-term upside potential is high until the main structure is completed.
H1 time frame:
The current decline may occur within the red 1-2-3-4-5 structure within green wave 5, as the price is currently in red wave 4.
This red wave 4 is forming as a flat correction, which corresponds to the situation analyzed in the previous plan.
Red wave C target: around 4260
Above this level is the 4274 area, an area that separates high and low liquidity
Therefore, when price reaches the 4260-4274 area, we will look for buying opportunities in conjunction with this area and confirmation of a bullish momentum reversal in the first half.
Expected goals of Red Wave 5:
First target: 4365
Second target: 4393
3. Monitoring points
As mentioned in the previous plan, the recent upward rebound did not reach the 4353 level, which does not negate the scenario of completion of Green Wave 5 near this level (see weekly plan).
Therefore, if the following is true:
Bearish reversal in momentum confirmed after close of today’s candle
The next bounce of H4 fails to break the 4353 level
→ You must be prepared, the purple Y wave on the daily chart has started.
4. Trading plan
Buying area: 4261 – 4259
Stop loss: 4240
First target (TP1): 4286
Second target (TP2): 4319
Third target (TP3): 4365
