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XAUUSD first half analysis based on volume profile
Gold is trading sideways and is in a consolidation phase near $4,300 an ounce. The short-term trend is not yet clear, and the market needs a specific reaction in the main liquidity area to determine the next move.
Priority Scenario – Main Scenario
Based on the volume profile, adopt a mid-term trend buying strategy in areas with advantages
Main buying area: around 4284 based on VAL level
Technical Background: This area represents the lower border of the value area where buying demand may arise while the consolidation phase is underway
Price Forecast: Maintain trading above VAL, absorb short-term selling pressure, then gradually return to higher equilibrium areas
Transaction management:
If the price shows a positive reaction and the first half candle remains above the 4284 level, the medium-term buying outlook could be in line with the main trend.
However, if the price clearly breaks through VAL, one needs to be cautious and wait for a deeper reaction.
alternatives – alternatives
If the market gathers more liquidity, there are deeper buying opportunities
Alternative buying area: near 4242 VAH in the previous value area
Technical background: This area represents the upper boundary of the previous value area and may act as a strong support when a deeper correction occurs.
Price Expectations: Liquidity below range, followed by recovery, bringing market back to balance
Sell ​​Scenario – High Risk
Selling is only considered a short-term transaction and not a primary strategy
Quick selling area: Based on the 2.618 Fibonacci extension line near 4378
Note: Selling should only be considered when there is a clear price rejection signal, and avoid holding sell positions for long periods of time as long as the general trend remains upward.
main reason
On the H1 framework, prices are volatile and consolidating, suggesting that the market needs more liquidity before confirming its next move.
The volume profile shows regions with higher interaction probability, especially VAL at 4284 and VAH at 4242.
The 4378 level represents extended resistance, suitable for profit-taking in buying transactions or short-term selling against the trend.
Macro backdrop and market sentiment
Gold maintained relative strength near $4,300 an ounce, supported by expectations of the Federal Reserve’s continued monetary easing trend and strong safe-haven demand.
Silver, on the other hand, is facing short-term profit-taking pressure after hitting all-time highs, reflecting a more cautious market sentiment.
The most important event this week is the US non-farm payrolls report. Weaker data could reinforce a continuation of gold’s uptrend, while strong data could prompt a short-term pullback on continued disagreements within the Fed and expectations of heightened volatility.
Risk management and follow-up
Avoid entering when price is in the middle of a range and has not yet hit important volume levels.
If the price clearly breaks through the 4242 level and fails to recover, the mid-term buying strategy loses its edge.
Watch for volatility around the release of the non-farm payrolls report, as the potential for wild swings and liquidity sweeps is high.
