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1. Momentum
Daily frame D1:
The daily frame momentum has entered the overbought zone, indicating that the bullish power is beginning to weaken. If momentum is confirmed to have reversed to the downside, this could signal that the current upward wave is coming to an end.
Frame H4:
Currently, momentum is approaching in the fourth quarter, which reflects weak purchasing momentum. We need to wait for the bearish candle close to confirm the momentum reversal on this frame.
Frame H1:
Momentum in the first half is preparing to reverse upward from oversold territory, suggesting a potential short-term upward move in the framework.
2. Wave structure
Daily frame D1:
With D1 momentum moving into overbought territory and price approaching our desired target, the green C wave may be nearing completion. When the C wave is completed, the purple X wave will also be completed. If daily momentum confirms a reversal, this point is likely to be the top of the X wave, followed by the decline to form the violet Y wave.
Frame H4:
Prices broke above yesterday’s top, which enhances the likelihood of wave 4 completion. After the end of wave 4, the price continues to rise, forming green wave 5, with the expected target around 4334.
Frame H1:
It appears that the previous correction structure formed the 4th wave of the green triangle abcde pattern.
In the current uptrend, a red five-wave structure is forming, with price currently within the red third wave. In the 3rd wave, the internal structure consists of 5 black waves, and the market is currently in the adjustment stage in the 4th black wave.
Red Wave 3 Target: Approximately 4311
Black wave 4 is in a sideways pattern, with the target near 4260
But be careful because H4 momentum convergence is an uncomfortable place for me because it increases the likelihood of a clear reversal in momentum. If this happens, we may see a continuation of the decline for 4-5 H4 candles, which may push the price higher.
However, momentum in the first half still supports the short-term upward trend.
3. Trading plan
I chose the 4260 area as a suitable buying area, targeting Black Wave 5 until 4311.
IMPORTANT NOTE:
If Green Wave 4 is indeed a triangle as numbered, Green Wave 5 may rise quickly followed by a strong reversal, as triangles often appear before the end of a major trend.
trading plan
Buying area: 4261 – 4259
Level: 4248
TP1:4292
TP2:4311
