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✅ Trend Analysis – 4 Hour Chart (H4)
1️⃣ Long bearish candle after strong rally – clear sign of profit taking and weak momentum
1️⃣ Long bearish candle after strong rally – clear sign of profit taking and weak momentum
Gold prices rose to 4353 and then quickly fell, forming a large bearish candle that engulfed the previous bullish candle.
This indicates strong selling pressure at the highs and a significant decline in upward momentum.
2️⃣ Short-term moving averages flatten – MA5 reverses and starts to move downwards
MA5 (4309) started sloping downwards and the price also broke above this MA, indicating that the strong uptrend has entered a correction phase.
MA10 (4281) becomes the first important support level.
3️⃣ The price rejects the Bollinger Band upper track – the price returns to the middle track
After touching the upper track of the Bollinger Band indicator, the price of gold fell back strongly and is currently moving towards the middle track near 4245.
This indicates that the upward momentum is weak and a short-term correction wave is about to begin.
📌 H4 summary:
The strong rise has stopped and gold prices have entered a correction phase.
The most noteworthy support levels are: 4280 and 4250.
A break above the 4250 level would confirm the possibility of a further pullback.
📊 Trend Analysis – 1 hour chart (H1)
1️⃣ Sharp reversal from 4353 level – breakdown of short-term bullish structure
Gold prices quickly retraced from 4353 to 4263, forming a strong bearish V-shaped reversal, indicating that sellers are in control in the short term.
Prices are currently trying to rebound, but the pressure is still high.
2️⃣ Bearish Moving Average Bearish Sequence
Both MA5 and MA10 are showing a downward trend and the price is facing rejection near MA10 (around 4313).
Price is unable to move back above MA10, leading to a bearish short-term outlook.
3️⃣ The middle line of Bollinger Bands is moving downwards – confirming bearish consolidation
The midline fell towards 4297, and the price repeatedly fell.
If the rebound remains weak, gold prices may retest the lower boundary area (4250-4260).
📌 H1 Summary:
The rebound is weak and the trend structure is still bearish.
If the price of gold cannot return to the 4300 level, it is expected to continue falling towards 4260-4250.
🔴Resistance levels
4309–4313 (resistance area created by MA5/MA10)
4330 (structural resistance on watch bezel)
4353 (previous peak)
🟢 Support level
4281 (MA10 support on 4H frame)
4263-4250 (key support area; breaking this area will deepen the correction)
4225 (low structural support on 4H frame)
📌 Trading strategy suggestions
🔰 1. Sell on rebound (basic strategy)
📍Consider selling gold at 4305-4315
🎯Target: 4285/4265/4250
⛔ Stop loss: above 4325
reason:
Trend weakening after reversal from top
There is significant resistance at the moving average
The rebound is weak → it is more likely to continue to fall
🔰2. Buy at major support areas (secondary strategy)
📍If the price reaches 4255-4250 and shows signs of stabilization
➡️ You can start light buying transactions
🎯 Target: 4280 / 4295
⛔ Stop loss: below 4244
reason:
strong support area
Suitable for short-term rebound trading (contract size is reduced)
📌Summary
The H4 chart shows that the uptrend has stopped and the market has entered a correction.
The half-hour chart confirms the weakness of the rebound and the continuation of the bearish outlook in the short term.
As long as gold prices remain below 4315, the preferred strategy is to sell on the rebound and only buy in areas of strong support.
