Why can’t they end the border conflict?

The Thai-Cambodian border once again heard the roar of artillery fire, rockets and air strikes.

Villages along a corridor stretching hundreds of kilometers were evacuated for the second time in five months. Families and their pets sat on mats in makeshift shelters, wondering when they could return home and when they might be forced to flee again.

Why did this happen so soon after US President Donald Trump brokered a ceasefire in July?

The incident was triggered by a seemingly minor incident on Sunday, when a Thai engineering team working on a passage in a disputed area of ​​the border was shot at by Cambodian troops, according to the Thai army. Two Thai soldiers were injured, but their injuries were not serious.

In the past, this might have been resolved with some quick diplomacy. But that’s rarely the case this year. Instead, there is a vast gulf of distrust between the two neighbors that even Trump’s dealmaking abilities have failed to bridge.

Although he claimed to have reached a historic peace deal, the agreement he forced the two countries to cease fire in July has always been fragile.

Thailand in particular was so uneasy about the internationalization of the border conflict that it agreed to a ceasefire only because Trump held a tariff gun to its head; at the time, it was just days away from a deadline for Thailand and Cambodia to negotiate significant reductions in tariffs on their key U.S. exports.

Cambodia, by contrast, is more than happy to welcome outside intervention. As a smaller country, it feels at a disadvantage in bilateral negotiations with Thailand.

But on the border, Chinese troops continue to clash with Thai troops and have laid new landmines, a move that is sure to anger the Thai public and has so far resulted in seven Thai soldiers losing limbs. Thailand has presented compelling evidence of this, accusing Cambodia of breaking its promises and refusing to release 18 soldiers captured in July.

Since July, any restrictions on Thailand’s armed forces have disappeared. The current prime minister, Anutin Charvirakul, leads a minority coalition and faces other challenges. He gave the military full authority to handle border conflicts as it saw fit.

The army says its goal is to inflict enough damage on the Cambodian military to ensure it never threatens border communities again. It also hopes to control several hilltop positions that would give its soldiers a greater advantage in future battles with Cambodian forces.

Both sides conduct drills around these positions throughout the year in an attempt to strengthen road access and surrounding defenses.

When the Thais were forced to halt in July, they believed they were driving the Cambodians back. The military said it hopes to complete the work now.

It also regards the role of defending Thailand’s territorial claims as sacred, even though the conflict involves several swaths of mostly uninhabited land.

The motivations of Cambodia’s leadership are harder to predict.

Former Prime Minister Hun Sen remains the puppet master of his son, current Prime Minister Hun Manet. He publicly called on the military to exercise restraint, saying Cambodia was being bullied by its more powerful neighbors and needed international support.

Yet his intervention in the simmering border dispute this year was decisive, particularly his decision to leak confidential phone conversations with then-Thailand Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra, whose father Thaksin was a long-time friend and business partner of Hun Sen.

Her leaked comments praised him and condemned her own army commanders as fanatical, which was disastrous for her and her father. Her government collapsed, he was jailed, and many Thais, even those vehemently opposed to the Shinawatra family, were angered by the perception that Cambodia had been interfering in Thai politics.

Thai public opinion is now more supportive of their military taking a tough stance against Cambodia.

Could President Trump be as contentious as he was in July again? Maybe.

But if all he achieves is another ceasefire, it will only be a matter of time before fighting breaks out again. Thailand has also stated many times that it is not ready for diplomacy. The report said Cambodia must show good faith before it is ready to try another ceasefire.

Exactly what this means is unclear, but at least a decisive and verified end to the use of landmines at the border is needed.