XAUUSD – H1 is in correction phase, watch out for sell on rebound – buy…

Gold is currently in a bearish structure in the first half of the year, and this stage is just a rebound wave in the downward trend after last weekend.
An important price area to watch is around 4.164 – if this area is not breached, the downward trend in the first half of the year will remain intact. Below that level, the market “targets” the VAL area around the 50% Fibonacci range + 4.125-4.132, which is where buying liquidity is concentrated.

🎯 Scenario 1 – Sell the bounce in a bearish structure

Price: 4.208 – 4.212
Stop loss: 4.216
Take Profit: 4.190 – 4.176 – 4.150 – 4.130
Reason: 4.208–4.212 is a sell-time area on the chart:

Convergence with the resistance area closest to H1.
It is located just above the “strong support” area that was broken and now acts as a new resistance level.
If prices rise here, I would prefer to sell in the first half of the downtrend, targeting the bottom area of ​​4.19x – 4.176, and deeper into the Fibonacci zone near the bottom of 4.150 – 4.130.

⭐️ Scenario 2 – Buy + VAL 4.125–4.132 in Fibo Buy Zone

Buy: 4.125 – 4.132
Stop loss: below 4.132 (according to personal money management, I do not allow the price to break through this area deeply)
Take Profit: 4.155 – 4.190 – 4.225

Reason: The 4.125-4.132 area is a buying area that converges with the VAL + Fibonacci 50% of the previous bull market. It is also an area where the volume curve shows high trading volume.
If, after the sell-off, the price returns here with a clear rebound reaction, I think this area will start to accumulate buy positions up to 4.155-4.19x and further towards 4.225.

1️⃣Basic background – Federal Reserve and interest rate cut expectations

The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points at its next meeting continues to rise sharply:
Fed Watch: ~89.4%
Comprehensive market: ~95%

This suggests that the market has almost pre-priced the decision to ease, creating a positive basis for gold in the medium term, although a deep pullback wave is likely in the short term due to profit taking and position reorganization.

In short: The macro supports gold, but it is still in the correction phase in the first half of the year; instead of trying to buy the bottom midway, I chose to sell on the rebound in the resistance area and buy in the obvious Fibo+VAL area.

2️⃣ Business planning and risk management

Trade only in the areas marked for sale: 4.208–4.212, Stop Loss 4.216, Take Profit 4.190–4.176–4.150–4.130.
Buy: 4.125–4.132, stop loss below 4.132, take profit 4.155–4.190–4.225.

Do not place orders between the 4.16x-4.19x area to avoid “waves” in sideways rebound waves.
For each scenario, the maximum risk is 1-2% of the account, and do not extend your stop loss even if Fed news is approaching.

If you found this insight useful, please follow the TradingView account and leave a comment to see if you are leaning towards selling the bounce today or waiting for a deep buy in the Fibonacci zone – I always read comments before publishing my next article.