Will gold head towards $4,200 tomorrow (Monday)? For OANDA: XAUUSD by gold_guide — TradingView

Will gold head towards $4,200 tomorrow (Monday)?

After the false breakthrough, is it “atmospheric replenishment” or “expected reversal”?

Hello traders!

The market performance last Friday was stunning – gold’s “false breakout” of $4,160 was a clear example of market reordering.

Not only does this remove a weak position, it also sets the stage for price action this week.

Last week, thanks to our precise understanding of the key levels, we made a respectable profit of 83 pips on the free channel, with a win rate of 85%. All records are open and transparent and you are welcome to review them.

Tomorrow (Monday), the market will wake up from the weekend lull, and Friday’s trading results will be used as the basis for decision-making.

Below I will provide you with detailed spot trading scenarios and technical analysis for tomorrow.

First: Main decision points: The fluctuations gradually calmed down at the $4,200 mark on Friday, and the intraday closing stabilized. The $4,190-$4,205 area has become the undisputed dividing line between buyers and sellers. A rise or fall in this area will directly determine the short-term market direction.

Technical analysis: This area represents the upper edge of the early high volume area and is also a stable platform after Friday’s “false breakthrough followed by a true correction”. A break above this level could signal a false breakout, attracting short sellers, while a break below this level could signal a rebound on Friday, attracting buyers.

Market sentiment: Buyers and sellers are exhausted here. The first move at the start of trading on Monday often determines the direction of the market for the day.

2: Two specific scenarios and real-time trading strategies

Scenario 1: Bulls take control – Gold prices stabilize above $4,200, ready to challenge previous highs

Technical basis: If the price of gold can continue to stay above $4,200 during the Asian and European trading hours (especially if the candle body on the hourly chart is stable above this level), it will indicate that Friday’s price trend is a successful “bottoming” process, and bulls are preparing to launch a new round of bullish attack.

Live trading strategies:

Offensive strategy: When gold prices first fall into the $4198-4203 area, watch the 5-minute chart for signs of price stabilization, such as a longer lower shadow or a bullish engulfing pattern, and then consider opening a small buy position.

Conservative strategy: Wait for a clear break above $4,215 (US Friday session high) and then look for opportunities to buy on any minor pullbacks, such as to around $4,210.

Key risk management:

Standard Stop Loss: Should be set below $4188 (a fall below this level will invalidate the bullish logic).

Target level development:

First target: 4230-4235: initial resistance zone; it is recommended to halve the position.

Second target: 4250: Strong resistance near the previous peak; it is recommended to move the remaining positions to the stop loss position.

Stretch Target: 4280: Bullish continuation zone.

Scenario 2: Bearish Retracement – ​​A break below 4190 will confirm a false breakout and signal a reversal.

Technical basis: If the price of gold decisively falls below the 4190 mark (the closing price on the hourly chart is below 4190), Friday’s rebound can be regarded as the “final bull market trap” of major forces, and the price of gold will begin to retreat to a larger support level.

Spot trading strategy:

Confirmation: After gold prices fall below 4190, there is usually a rebound to test the support level. When the rebound reaches the 4190-4195 area (currently the resistance level) and shows signs of stopping (such as the short-term KDJ indicator turning from overbought to oversold), this is an ideal entry point for building a position.

**Chasing the rise:** If the price of gold falls below 4180 on high volume, this can be seen as a confirmation signal of weakness. At this time, you can open a small selling position, but the risk is higher.

**Main risk control:**

**Standard Stop Loss:** should be set above the 4206 level (a price increase above this level will invalidate the bearish logic).

**Target Level:**

**First Target:** 4150-4160: Previous false bearish zone, strong support, some profit taking may occur.

**Second Target:** 4120: Daily Support.

**Deeper Targets:** Below 4100: Challenge area for the downtrend.

Three: Tomorrow’s key time points and monitoring points

Asian early trading session (GMT+8, 8:00-12:00): Pay attention to the price trend at the 4200 level after the opening. Volatility is usually small, but initial strengths and weaknesses can be observed.

Note the erratic fluctuations in the narrow range (4190-4210). Stay neutral during this time.

European session (GMT+8, 15:00 to 18:00): Liquidity increases and volatility begins to increase.

Watch to see if the price can consolidate above the 4200 level or start testing the 4190 support.

The first trading opportunity may arise at this time.

US Trading Session (GMT+8, 20:00-22:00): Liquidity is at its best, often a good opportunity for directional moves or rapid upward acceleration.

Keep an eye out to see if prices break through the key price levels mentioned above during this period.