XAUUSD – Lana monitors scalping 4180-4185 ahead of data release…

1. Fundamental analysis

This weekend, markets are almost “holding their breath” waiting for the PCE report – the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, which is considered to be the last report before the final meeting of the year.

Surveys show consumer confidence has declined and the risk of a recession has increased.
But shopping season and Black Friday sales suggest buying power remains good.

Therefore, the PCE will decide: If inflation continues to fall, the market will reinforce expectations that the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 basis points by ~87%, which will support equities and create a positive basis for gold in the medium term.

Before the data is released, gold prices tend to trade sideways, with ranges under pressure, and funds wait and see for more signals.

Today, Lana considers this a weekend scalping session and will not open additional long positions.

2. Technical analysis

First Half Time Frame: Gold is trading in an ascending price channel, with the final low higher than the previous low. The channel’s lower trendline crosses the 4180-4185 area.

Above is the 4219 resistance area, which is beyond the POC range 4241-4244. However, judging from the current sideways status, the price has not yet shown a clear intention to break through.

On Thursday and early Friday, the oscillator range was disturbed, with candles entangled in the middle of the channel – reflecting accumulation, awaiting a breakout.

Therefore, instead of buying and selling in the middle of the area, Lana would choose an area with obvious liquidity near the uptrend line to scalp.

3. Price areas that need attention

Scalp buy zone: 4185 – 4180 (same as uptrend line + support)
Secondary Support: 4165 – 4156
Nearby resistance: 4219
Far-end impedance/POC: 4241 – 4244

4. Transaction scenario

⭐️The only scenario – buying and selling on weekends

Purchase: 4185 – 4180
Stop loss: 4178
Take Profit: At least +15–20 pips from the entry point (you can close the position near the nearby resistance area).

Today, Lana will not open additional long positions but will focus on that. Next week, I will update you all if a clearer big wave forms following PCE data and the Fed decision. 💛

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