XAU/USD – Gold range-bound, watch for pullback ahead of launch

📊 Market structure (first half of the year)

Gold runs in a converging triangle pattern – the bottom gradually rises due to purchasing power, while the top continues to stop at the downward trend line H1.

After a strong decline in the early stage, the market is continuing to create ChoCH Bullishindicating that cash flow is beginning to return, but pivot supply remains OB Bearish 4,23x – Places with limited prices.

Currently, the price is testing the upper edge of the triangle + supply area, which is primarily used for distribution and liquidity liquidation. → This is not an ideal buying area due to the fear of missing out.

💎 Main levels – important areas

• OB Bearish – 4,23x: Convergence of the downtrend line → an area where a strong reaction or liquidity sweep may occur.
• FVG – 4,21x: The price gap in the first half, the market tends to fill it again before continuing.
• OB Bullish – Buy Zone – 4,201: H1 order + the lower edge of the current range → the preferred area to monitor buying based on the trend.
• Buy Liquidity – 4,170: Areas with less liquidity → If the intermediate uptrend remains in effect, prices may decline significantly before rising strongly.
• Upper objective – 4.25x: If gold prices successfully break out of the convergence triangle, expand the target.

🎯 Trading plan – trading scenarios

1️⃣ Preferred scenario: Pull back to OB bullish

if it is a region OB Bearish 4,23x A reaction occurs (wick rejection, reversal pattern, weak momentum) and we expect the price to drop to:

→ FVG 4,21x
→ OB Bullish 4,201

In the 4.20x area, if a strong bullish/engulfing/pin candle appears, this will be a logical buy area based on the trend.

Suggested target price:
• TP1: FVG 4,21x
• TP2: OB bearish retest 4,23x
• TP3 extender: If price breaks out of the triangle, it will be the 4.25x zone

Cancel: The first half closed below 4,195 → wait and see the reaction of liquidity 4,170.

2️⃣Alternative scenario: Deep scanning to buy liquidity

If OB is bullish 4,20 times and cannot hold it and the price drops sharply, do not try to catch the falling knife.

→ Waiting for gold 4,170 when buying liquidity
→ Watch the reaction: long fuse, selling pressure exhausted, new HL formed…

When the signal is clear, buy again.

If the H1 candle breaks strongly above the 4,170 area → the bullish structure temporarily loses its effectiveness, reduce trading volume or wait for the market to stabilize.

⚠️Risk Management – ​​Risk Management

This is an idea-based trading plan, not an immediate entry signal.
Do not buy directly at the 4.23x resistance area.
Be patient, wait for a pullback into the discount zone (4.20x – 4.17x), and always set clear risks.

“Liquidity Reveals Truth—Structure Confirms Path.” ⚜️

⏰ Time frame: H1
✍️Analysis: Captain Vincent