Ukrainians in war-torn Donbas weigh prospects for peace deal

Trains are no longer running to Ukraine’s eastern Donetsk region – a region claimed in full by Russian President Vladimir Putin. It’s another sign of Russia’s steady progress.

Instead, the last station is now on the western side of the Donetsk border. This is where civilians and soldiers wait to make their way to relative safety – their trains leaving Dodge.

Putin has struck a more optimistic tone since the leak of the U.S. proposal to end the war, which is widely seen as being in line with his highest demands. Ukrainian President Zelensky said the territorial issue remains the most difficult issue facing the U.S.-led peace talks.

At the last stop on the line, soldier Andri and his girlfriend Polina are about to break up after a brief relationship. Andre must return to the front line, and they don’t know when they will meet again.

He laughed when I mentioned the peace talks that Donald Trump’s envoy had spoken with Ukrainian negotiators before traveling to Moscow, dismissing them as “small talk, just small talk.” He didn’t think the war would end anytime soon.

Other soldiers who boarded trains and briefly fled the fighting westward were also skeptical. They were taking part of a 20-day vacation. Most looked tired.

Russian troops now control about 85% of Donbas, including Luhansk and Donetsk. On Tuesday, they claimed to have captured the key strategic town of Pokrovsk in Donetsk. Ukraine says fighting in the city continues.

“Everyone is exhausted, everyone is mentally and physically tired,” Denis, who has served in the Ukrainian army for the past two years, told me.

Some of his comrades were already asleep. His troops had been fighting in the besieged city of Kostyannivka.

“It’s scary, really scary,” he said, describing the drones flying around “like flies.” But he made it clear that after sacrificing so much, they were not ready to give up.

“No one will hand over Donbass to Putin. No way, this is our land,” he said.

Giving up territory where at least 250,000 Ukrainians live – the Donetsk “fortress belt” cities of Slavyansk, Kramatorsk and Druzhkivka – is unacceptable to most Ukrainians.

Russia has spent more than a year trying to capture Pokrovsk, while Ukraine is unwilling to hand over such an important strategic hub.

But U.S. officials believe Ukraine is outnumbered and outgunned.

A large number of civilians have been evacuated from Donbas. This continues as peace talks proceed. We witnessed dozens of people, young and old, arriving at a reception center at the border in Lozowa.

They took advantage of the fog to escape. Less likely to be targeted by drones. About 200 people arrive at the reception center every day. They were given basic supplies and some money.

Yevni and his wife Marina had just arrived from Kramatorsk, along with their two children. “There are more drones now,” she told me. “It’s getting harder to even get out. Everything is dangerous,” she said. “Even if you go to the store, you might not come back.”

The family plans to move to the capital, Kyiv. Yevni lacks confidence in peace talks. He said “there (Russia) will not agree to our conditions. We know that nothing good will come of it.”

But others seem more willing to consider giving up their homes permanently in exchange for peace.

Alexander said it was too dangerous to stay. His children have gone to Germany. While he described Russia’s top demands as “probably unacceptable”, he appeared willing to consider some elements of the leaked peace plan – trading territory for peace. The original version of the U.S. draft envisaged a de facto handover to Russia of the Donbas region, which remains under Ukrainian control.

“I personally would agree to the terms,” ​​he said.

Ina, who ran away with her five children, also decided it was time to make a deal. She could no longer keep her children, ages nine months to 12 years old, away from the dangers of life in Kramatorsk. She had tried to tell them that the explosions they heard while seeking shelter in the cellar were just fireworks.

“The most important thing is that there will be peace,” Inna said. When I asked if this meant giving up her home forever, she responded, “In that case, yes.” They already have plans to rebuild their lives elsewhere.

Some soldiers sent to Donbass are also voting with their feet. Since the full-scale Russian invasion, nearly 300,000 cases of desertion, or absence of soldiers from duty without official leave, have occurred, and the number has risen sharply in the past year.

One of them is Serhii, but that’s not his real name. We met him while we were hiding. His home became his prison as he tried to evade arrest. Serhi volunteered to fight at the beginning of the year, while most of his unit was forcibly mobilized – “taken off the streets.”

He said when his troops were sent to the front line near Pokrovsk, they were outnumbered and not properly trained or equipped. “I ended up in a camp where everything was a mess,” he said, though he still believes that was the exception rather than the norm.

Serhii deserted in May after two of his friends went AWOL.

“If we had proper leadership and experienced people in charge, I wouldn’t go,” he said. “I’m here to serve, not to run.”

Serhi is still considering his next move and the possibility of returning to the military. But he echoed recent warnings from the United States that the odds of winning the war were not in Ukraine’s favor.

Asked if he believed Ukraine could win, he expressed doubts. “If you think logically, the answer is no. A country with 140 million people compared to us with 32 million people – logically, that doesn’t work.”

Additional reporting by Marianna Matvichuk