Gold Weekly Review: Gold rose strongly and broke through the consolidation range, and the market paid attention to next week’s policy signals

Market summary: Gold opened near 4158 on Friday, and the overall Asian session showed an upward trend. In the morning, the price fluctuated between 4157 and 4163, and then the upward momentum gradually dissipated, breaking through the key resistance levels of 4170 and 4180, reaching a maximum of 4182, and then stabilizing at a higher level. Before the European session, due to technical failures on some exchanges, the market suddenly plummeted and the market experienced temporary fluctuations. The gold price once fell to 4164 and 4170, and then quickly recovered. Overall, the fluctuations are relatively large, but there is no obvious trend breakthrough. At the end of the European session and early in the US session, the price of gold fell to 4151 and then stabilized. Then it launched a new upward attack during the US session, strongly breaking through the 4200 mark, reaching a maximum of 4208 before falling technically. However, the price of gold returned above the 4200 mark before midnight and finally closed near 4218. The intraday price trend shows the characteristics of “consolidation-breakthrough-consolidation-breakthrough again”. Market driven analysis

Gold broke higher this week despite relatively light trading, mainly driven by the following factors:

Interest rate cut expectations: The market’s expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in December continue to heat up, which is the main driving force for the recent rise in gold prices. Although official data is incomplete due to the U.S. government shutdown, speculative buying has taken over, pushing prices slowly higher.

Technical Momentum: Gold prices have accumulated strong upward momentum after stabilizing in the 4150-4180 range for several consecutive trading days. The rise in gold prices on Friday can be considered the result of a combination of technical and moral factors.

Liquidity environment: Holidays lead to lower trading volumes, resulting in a surge in orders and vulnerability to severe price fluctuations. Friday’s sudden plunge and rapid rebound also reflected liquidity imbalances.

Forecast for next week: Watch for policy signals and price range breakouts

1. Focus on key events

Federal Reserve Chairman Powell spoke on Tuesday: If a clear signal is given to cut interest rates, gold prices may rise further; if he maintains a hawkish stance, bullish sentiment may decline.

1. Minutes of the Federal Reserve interest rate meeting: released in December, but the market may calculate them in advance; therefore, we must be wary of negative price changes caused by different expectations.

2. Risk of missing data: Due to the government shutdown and the delay in the release of key data such as non-agricultural data, the market lacks effective guidance. Institutional manipulation and emotional trading can exacerbate volatility. 3. Technical analysis and trading strategies

Resistance area: The 4240-4250 area represents strong resistance in the near future. If it continues to rise, it may form a temporary top near the 4270 mark.

Support area: focus on the 4160-4180 range. A break above this level could lead to a test of the 4140 area.

Trading advice:

If it opens higher on Monday, it is recommended to study short-selling opportunities in the 4240-4270 range, with the stop loss at the previous high and the target 4160-4180.

If the price rebounds to the 4160-4180 range and stabilizes, it is recommended to consider a small purchase with a stop loss below the 4140 level and a target of 4220-4240. To determine trading positions in the medium and long term, you need to wait for Powell’s speech to clarify the trend and avoid excessively following short-term fluctuations during periods of data stagnation.

3. Risk warning

Under the current positive market sentiment, gold prices have rebounded by more than 200 points from below 4,000 points. Beware of profit-taking based on the principle of “buy rumors, sell facts.”

In the absence of data guidance, organizations may create false breaches through technical manipulation. Therefore, it is crucial to strictly control risks and avoid excessive leverage.

Conclusion: Gold has finally achieved a breakthrough after a long period of consolidation, but whether it can open up new room for growth depends on the implementation of policy indicators. Investors should keep their positions flexible, dynamically adjust strategies based on technical and fundamental factors, and reasonably manage potential fluctuations.

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