XAUUSD – Lana is following the mid-term wave 5 to the ATH 43 area

1. Fundamental analysis
In the geopolitical context, President Putin continued to reiterate the terms of the Russian-Ukrainian ceasefire. The possibility of a peace deal remains, but the tough statement suggests the risk of the conflict will not end anytime soon. This maintains gold’s role as a medium-term safe-haven asset.

In the United States, on the other hand, Trump continues to assert that the stock market will continue to reach new highs and even hinted at the possibility of eliminating most income taxes and replacing them with tariff revenue sources. These statements have fueled “risk-on” sentiment in stocks and the U.S. dollar, creating some tension with gold in the short term.

Overall, Lana believes that gold prices are still biased towards a medium-term upward trend in the next 1-2 weeks, but are prone to volatility when the market re-evaluates geopolitical risks and U.S. policy expectations.

2. Technical analysis
The D1 time frame shows an Elliott Wave 5 structure in a medium-term bullish phase. Wave (4) has completed at an important support area, with the Market Structural Shift (MSS) signal reversing higher, paving the way for wave (5).

Using Fibonacci extensions, the theoretical target for wave (5) could reach the 2,618 area near 4360, which is also a strong psychological resistance level and close to the ATH area – an area prone to huge profit-taking pressure from buyers.

4246 will be an important resistance level in the future:
If the price breaks decisively and closes the D1 candle above 4246, the uptrend will be confirmed stronger, reflecting buyer acceptance pushing the price to new higher areas.

The downtrend line is broken and then the price returns to test and rise, indicating that buying power is regaining control. A return of price around the trendline and the 4133-4139 area will be an opportunity for Lana to find a buy point that is compatible with wave 5 and has a better R:R ratio.

3. Price considerations
Important resistance/mid-term profit-taking areas:
4240 – 4246: Intermediate resistance level that must be exceeded to strengthen the uptrend.
4360: 2.618 Fibonacci area and potential ATH area for wave 5.

Support/Potential Purchase Areas:
4133 – 4139: A price area close to the trendline that Lana prefers to monitor for buying in the event of a corrective move.
4124: Technical stop, below which the short-term bullish wave structure may weaken.

4. Transaction scenario
Purchase 4133 – 4139
Level: 4124
Target price: 4240 – 4280 – 4350

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