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Hello friends, today let’s update Gold’s Elliott Wave analysis to see how the wave action will develop during the current trading day.
1. Momentum
D1
Momentum is still tightening in the D1 frame and we need to wait for a strong bearish daily candle close to confirm a momentum reversal. When this is confirmed, the market may enter a bearish phase lasting 4-5 days.
H4
H4 momentum is also narrowing, suggesting a possible bearish reversal in the short term. But you should note the following:
• Price and momentum highs and lows show higher highs and higher lows, supporting the uptrend structure.
• If H4 momentum actually reverses and enters oversold territory, price would have to break above the 4142 level to confirm a breakout of the structure and signal a true trend reversal.
H1
The momentum of H1 also turned bearish, in line with H4. I expect the current area to be the top of a potential wave.
2. Wave structure
D1
The wave structure in frame D1 has not changed much. Sustained momentum overlap indicates a slow uptick.
• If price breaks above 4243, the purple five-wave Y wave pattern will become invalid.
• In this case a different wave structure will be activated (as mentioned previously) and I will update the analysis when this happens.
H4
We are still following the green ABC correction pattern, with price currently within the green C wave.
• Since H4 momentum is in the overbought zone, I expect this zone to be the top of the C wave.
• If momentum enters oversold territory and price manages to break above the 4142 level, a structural breakout will be confirmed.
• If momentum enters oversold territory but price remains above 4142, we must be prepared for the possibility of a continuation of the uptrend.
H1
Yesterday, the RSI indicator on the H1 frame diverged, indicating the end of wave C. But gains during the Asian session suggest that Wave C may extend further. The current price is located in the previously determined C wave target area.
• I expect the current area to be the top of wave C as the momentum from D1, H4 and H1 prepares to reverse.
3. Trading plan
The current area is still the best area for SELL sales.
In the next momentum period of the H4 system:
• If the momentum enters the oversold zone, but the price does not break through the 4142 level, it is best to consider closing the position early to stay safe.
Trading settings
• Sales area: 4187 – 4190
• Stop Loss: 4210
• TP1:4158
• TP2: 4112
• TP3: 4081
