Last week’s news showed that gold prices were caught between expectations for a rate cut from the Federal Reserve and the accumulation of a series of U.S. data that could prompt the Fed to maintain a more dovish stance. Price rose to 4.130 and then experienced a strong sell-off towards 4.065, ending the week near 4.066, reflecting investor defensive sentiment.

On the H4 framework, gold is moving sideways in the 4,000-4,120 range. It is currently trading around 4,048.6, below the 34/89 moving average, indicating that the 4,070-4,080 area has become a strong resistance. RSI 14 fluctuates between 43-46 and below the 50 level, which reflects weak buying momentum and every upward attempt is quickly absorbed by selling.

Base case: Technically the price could rebound to 4,120 before resuming the decline towards the bottom of the range at 4,000. If the US data is strong, it may break through 4,000 points and the decline may extend further.
The appropriate strategy at the moment is: sell when price approaches 4.120, take profits around 4.000, and do not consider bullish reversal scenarios unless the candle closes firmly above 4.120 and the RSI exceeds 50.

Source link