ORWE by EGX: ORWE by ICHIMOKUontheNILE — TradingView

📘 For educational purposes only – no financial advice
(ORWE • EGX • Short selling prohibited)

⸻

1️⃣ Clear at a glance: ORWE’s current inventory position

• Current price is around £22.30.
• The all-time high price is around £35.12 in October 2024, which means the price is about 36% below the peak.
• The stock has a strong upward trend from October 2022 to October 2024, rising from £6.3 to £35.
• According to one published estimate, the fair value is approximately £30.
• Fundamentals remain good: the company is profitable, with revenue in excess of £24bn and a dividend yield of around 7%.

Overall picture:
After two years of strong gains and then sharp declines, the stock is currently trading in the lower to mid-19.5-25 range.

⸻

2️⃣ XAUMO style trend chart (ORWE)

Monthly – Basic Trends

• From 2022 to 2024, the trend is clear: higher highs and higher lows.
• The drop from 35 to 21 roughly represents the 50% retracement of the trend from 6.3 to 35, which is normal during an upcycle and is not necessarily a long-term top.

General rules (MTF):
• As long as the weekly close is above 19.5-21, the main trend remains bullish.

Weekly – Current Trends

Excerpted from Delta Weekly:
• Strong positive deltas and price gains in June and early October.
• There have been large negative deltas (over -4M) in recent weeks, but prices have remained above 21-22, indicating a correction supported by demand around 21.

Weekly status:
In the larger upward trend, it is revised horizontally downward, with strong support at 21-21.5, and the final line of defense is around 19.5.

daily and instant

• Negative deltas often occur during bad days.
• Price stabilizes around 22.3.
• Despite the pressure, there was no violent sell-off.

result:
It looks like selling pressure is being absorbed around current levels rather than a breakdown occurring.

⸻

3️⃣ Is what is happening a correction or a complete reversal?

correct:
Down 30-50%, the price is still above the last important low, and the general trend still exists.

Bearish reversal:
It fell below the main bottom, the trading volume was large, and it failed to rebound.

For Aowei:
• Important weekly lows are between 19.5-21.
• The current low is 21-21.3, still above the key area.
• Fundamentals have not deteriorated and the target is still pointing to 30.

Category (Education):
As long as the weekly close is above 19.5-21, what is happening is a mild correction within the larger uptrend rather than a complete reversal.

A weekly close below 19.5 on high volume signals the end of the bullish wave and entry into the 15-17 area.

⸻

4️⃣ Important levels

support:
• S1: 21.0–21.5
• S2: 19.5 (main dividing line)

Resistance:
• R1: 23.5–24.0
• R2: 25–26

Average targets while the uptrend continues:
28-30.

⸻

5️⃣ Strategic decision – keep or sell? (no shorts)

A) Long-term investors (6 to 18 months)

Overall trend: As long as the conditions are met, holding makes sense.

plan:
1. As long as the weekly closing price is higher than 21:
• We view the decline as a correction.
• Adequate retention.
• Can be bought gradually between 21 and 21.8, with protection point below 19.5.
2. The weekly closing price is lower than 21 and higher than 19.5:
• Increased risk.
• Stop buying.
• Once it rebounds to 23-24, some positions may be diluted.
3. The weekly closing price fell below 19.5, indicating heavy volume:
• The landscape of educational sales to long-term investors is changing.

Can’t see “Debug Only”:
The weekly closing price is below 19.5, and there will be follow-on selling next week.

⸻

B) Mudarib (2 to 8 weeks)

1) Buy at low price (20-21 or less)
• You still make a profit.
• Kinetic energy is weak, Delta is negative.

Provincial plan:
• Sell part now around 22.3.
• As long as the price is above 21, keep the section and stop at 20.5.
• Add new positions only after:
• Daily close above 23
• Strong positive delta (+200k or more)
• Above average trading volume.

2) Buy high (24–26)
• Your position is at a loss and immediately receives support.

Possible working diagram:

• As long as the price is above 21:
• Give stocks a chance to rebound.
• If volume is weak and rebounds to 23.5-24, relax the position.

• If a breakout occurs and closes below 21 points with subsequent selling:
• Support is perceived as failing.
• Educational withdrawal is better than random waiting.

⸻

6️⃣When does the correction usually end?

Completion score:
1. Price:
• Stable above 21-21.5 and rebounded significantly.
• A strong green candle closes above the previous day’s high (eg back above 23).
2. Transaction volume and increment:
• One or more days of significant positive value (+300k or more).
• Monthly delta changes from dark red to stable or positive.
3. Time:
• After a strong rally, correction usually takes 2-4 months.
• Most of the time already done.

When these conditions are met, the chances of the correction ending and a return to the upside increase.

⸻

7️⃣ Quick summary in Egyptian

Prince 👑
• The arrow goes from 6 to 35 and back about halfway down around 21-22. This is a natural correction to the uptrend that is still in place.
• Zone 21-21.5 is the heart of the conflict and is relatively safe as long as weekly closures are kept above it.
• The weekly line is below 19.5, we think the general trend has ended.
• If you are a long-term investor, there is no need to panic but you need to have a clear plan.
• If speculators and buyers are above 24-25, it is better to target 23.5-24 to relieve pressure rather than wait without a plan.

⸻