XAUUSD – D1 accumulation triangle, waiting for new breakthrough this week

🌤 New week review
Hello everyone, I’m Lana 💬
After gold’s strong rise from the 3,500 area to above 4,400, it enters the “resting” phase of the D1 framework: the price keeps testing the ascending trend line, but has not yet broken through it to confirm the downtrend.
The market is clearly waiting for a real breakout before a new mid-term wave forms.

Next week, we have Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) – important inflation data that could be the catalyst to push gold prices out of current accumulation territory.

💹 Technical Analysis (Daily Triangle)
On the D1 framework, gold is within a contracting triangle pattern when connecting declining highs and rising lows.

The rising trend line below remains intact, indicating that the mid-term trend has not yet reversed.

The following are important areas:
≈ 3,890: If the price closes below this area, medium-term weakness may be confirmed.

Fibonacci area and psychological resistance 3,800-3,900: strong support, converging with the old price structure.
POC volume is distributed around 3,650: if a deep decline occurs, this will be the next area to attract price.
Above, the old top area around 4,300-4,400 remains a very liquid area and is a natural target if gold prices break above the upper edge of the triangle.

In short: the greater the pressure on the triangle, the stronger the breakout – the trend will depend heavily on CPI/PPI data and Fed expectations.

🎯 Reference trading plan (mid-term)
💖 Scenario 1 – Maintain the upward trend (priority is given when the trend line has not been broken)
Monitor the reaction of the uptrend line D1 (area around 4,000).
If price continues to bounce off the trendline and sustains in the 3,890 area, it could:
Prioritize trend buying when H4-H1 support is retested.
Medium-term target: 4,150 → 4,250 → 4,300–4,400 if the triangle breaks upward.

💢Scenario 2 – Triangle breaks, turning to mid-term decline
If D1 closes below 3,890:
Consider this a confirmation of medium-term weakness.
Prioritize selling at newly formed resistance areas.
Stepwise target: 3,800 → 3,700 (POC) → 3,500 (original strong support).

In both cases, entry points should be tailored specifically on smaller timeframes (H4, H1) based on price action/OB/FVG.

⚠️News observation and risk management
Next week’s CPI and PPI could be the “knockout” that takes gold out of the triangle – swings could be wide and fast, and spreads could widen.

Last week’s non-farm payrolls data did not create a big wave for gold prices after the U.S. government shutdown, indicating that the market is maintaining strength and waiting for more important data.

🌷 Conclusion and interaction with LanaM2
Gold is in D1, the final stage of the accumulation triangle – at this moment, patient monitoring is as important as beautiful entry points💛
Next week, I will continue to update the details on smaller time frames each day so everyone can get a more specific entry point.