After exiting the long-term accumulation zone, XAUUSD broke out of a strong FVG bottom at $4,050-4,060 and is now retesting from bottom to top (a classic bearish retest). Price has been rejected continuously and remains below the downward sloping Ichimoku level, with selling volume gradually increasing each time FVG is hit → clear signs of distribution.

Main scenario: Expectations continue to decline, with next target at 3,998 (below FVG).

Background: U.S. 10-year Treasury yields hold steady at 4.25-4.30%, DXY consolidates above 104.5, real gold demand is not enough to reverse in the short term → bias is toward the bears until there is a clear catalyst from the Fed or geopolitics.

Do you think gold will drop $3,998 or rebound to protect FVG? Leave your opinion in the comments below! 👇

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