TVC’s Gold Update: GOLD by MR_gold2 — TradingView

🔥 First: Overall Outlook

Price: 4068 – 4070
Gold is currently on top of a major uptrend, which is what matters most

However:
• Prices below average
• Above trend
• There is conflict between them = a very strong decision making area

⸻

📌1) Technical analysis

✔ Trends:
• The uptrend from the bottom of 3920 remains.
• Prices are now being tested in real terms.
• Breakout trend = major change leading to 3980, then 3920.

✔ Average:
• MA Short = 4084
•Ma Long=4092
• MA main cross = 4082

Price below = selling pressure
But the existence of the trend supports a temporary rebound.

✔ Indicators:
• Histogram “red” = selling momentum
• RSI in mid-range = no strong upward momentum

⸻

📌 2) Elliott Wave Analysis
• Downgoing wave A has completed.
• Previous advance = Wave B.
• Gold is currently at:

📍 Beginning of downtrend C
or
📍 Wave B is a simple extension above the trend

The difference between them is 4045.

✔ C-wave targets:

🎯3980
🎯3920 (final goal)

⸻

📌 3) Time cycle analysis

The time reversal range remains:
⏳ November 21st to 23rd

Now is in a critical period
Gold is actually starting to show weakness = supporting the decline.

⸻

📌4) Mathematical number analysis
• 38.2% = 4060 (temporarily damaged)
• 50% = 4090 (display area)
• 61.8% = 4120

Fibonacci expansion of 1.618 wave A:
🎯3920

⸻

📌5) Fundamental analysis

Still negative:
• Strong dollar
• Fed not ready to cut rates yet
• Growing expectations that interest rates will remain high
• Bond yields strong

🔥 Fundamentals strongly support a decline.

⸻

📌 6) Price Action
• Candle with upper tail
• Price repeatedly rejected above 4080
• Significantly below average
• Price “retest” in line with trend

→ If trend is broken = rapid collapse to 3980.

⸻

📌 7) Support and resistance levels

🟢Support
1.4045
2.4020
3.3980
4.3920

🔴Resistor
1.4082
2.4084
3.4092
4. 4120 – 4135

⸻

📌8) Supply and demand areas

🔴Supply
• 4080 – 4092
• 4120 – 4135

🟢Request requirements
• 4045 – 4020
• 3980 – 3950
• 3920 – 3950 (main areas)

⸻

📌 9) Chart mode
• Downward channel
• ABC correction
• Double top
• Bearish Flag
• Bounce from viewing area
• Decisive uptrend test

⸻

📌10) Harmonics

still:

Bearish BAT is ready, point D is at 4120 – 4130
And the price drops significantly → the model works.

⸻

📌11) Gaze level

📍4045 The most important point at the moment
📍4082
📍4092

⸻

📌 12) Pivot area

🎯 4060 – 4075

This area is the “battle line” between descent and ascent.

⸻

🎯 13) Final recommendation——Recommendation

(Technical analysis, non-financial advice)

✔ Main Scenario (75%) — Bearish

🔻 Sell with every rise:
4080-4095

🎯Goal:
4070
4060

• 4045
• 4020
• 3980
• 3920

🔺 Stop loss is determined based on the trend of the chart. It must be close
A break above 4100 and hold above could end the advance. Please proceed with caution

⸻

✔ Alternative Scenario (25%) — Temporary increase

If the trend rebounds strongly and does not break through 4045
It may rise to:
• 4084
• 4092
• 4120

But they are all sales areas.

⸻

📌 Brief summary (ready to copy)

Trend: Bearish
Status: Price is above trend but below average
Resistors: 4082 – 4084 – 4092 – 4120
Support: 4045 – 4020 – 3980 – 3920
Waveforms: Preparing for the Bearish C Wave
Timetable: Reflections November 21-23
Price Action: Double + Tail Up
Recommendation: 4080-4092 sell,
Aiming to break through 4045-4040
Further decline to 3980-3920

Important tips
We do not provide you with financial and investment advice
Instead, we provide you with scientific and educational content
You are the only one responsible for pressing the buy and sell buttons

analyst
Engineer Ihab
Saeed Al Sahab Channel