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Market overview
• Macro Motives: The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) fell towards local support as market participants priced in changing geopolitical headlines and eased risk-off defenses. The sudden change in dollar strength provided the liquidity necessary for institutional buyers to launch a strong rally in safe-haven gold.
• Market conditions: Institutional order flow is actively shifting to buy-side delivery. High trading volumes significantly overwhelmed bearish short positions, causing a clear shift in market structure on the longer time frames.
• Macro Motives: The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) fell towards local support as market participants priced in changing geopolitical headlines and eased risk-off defenses. The sudden change in dollar strength provided the liquidity necessary for institutional buyers to launch a strong rally in safe-haven gold.
• Market conditions: Institutional order flow is actively shifting to buy-side delivery. High trading volumes significantly overwhelmed bearish short positions, causing a clear shift in market structure on the longer time frames.
Technical background
• Structure: Bullish structural breakout. A huge breakout candle formed on the 4-hour time frame, defining a major downtrend line for several weeks. After the breakout, the price completed a rapid closing of the internal fair value gap (FVG) and is now forming a local higher-lower structure to provide momentum for the next uptrend.
• Liquidity and Imbalance: Strong candles known for rallies have successfully rebalanced the inner FVG zone. The buy-side liquidity pool (BSL) has become very vulnerable near the major structural resistance level near 4,653 points.
Main areas
• Total structural supply: 4,653.978
• Hacker Activation Level: 4,584.699
• Retest level: 4,519.018
• Dilution requirements (FVG area): 4,435,000 – 4,475,000
• Overall bottom support: 4,360.666
Trading plan (if-then)
• If price maintains structural integrity above the local retest point (4,519.018) or pulls back slightly to collect internal liquidity and provide short-term bullish confirmation -> then look to open a long position targeting a breakout activation at 4,584.699, with significant expansion until total structural supply reaches 4,653.978.
• If the price breaks significantly above the retest point and falls below the FVG zone -> then the bullish continuation setup will be affected, exposing the market to a deep test of the overall bottom at 4,360.
MMFLOW perspective
• Slope: The tendency for an upward breakout. Broken trend lines and rapid dilution of FVG are key characteristics of smart money replacements. We prefer to execute long positions during periods of local value decline, strictly following a newly established institutional expansion path.
Should I buy penetration testing, or wait for the price to reach 4653 and look for short positions? Let me know your plans in the comments! Remember to like, follow and visit my profile for live updates and work platforms.
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