### 📈Basic logic of rising gold prices (bullish trend)

(Inflation fell slightly + USD/treasury bonds fell + positions within the Fed diverge; short-term recovery window opens)

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### 💰🔥 1. The core personal consumption expenditures (Core PCE) index in April was in line with expectations and fell month-on-month; interest rate hike expectations fell (main bullish factor)
Data released on Thursday (May 28): The core PCE index in April was +3.3% year-on-year (in line with expectations)** and +0.2% month-on-month (0.3% in line with expectations)**.
Inflation momentum slowed; “stubborn” inflation (difficult to contain) did not worsen → **Interest rate cut expectations increased, interest rate hike expectations decreased**.

CME FedWatch Indicators (monitors Fed expectations):
– Probability of interest rate hike in December: **more than 50%←42%**
– Probability of rate cut in 2026: **1% → slight increase**

Impact: **Reduced “opportunity cost” (cost of holding) pressure on gold**; this gives bulls some breathing room.

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### 💵📉 2. The U.S. dollar index fell to the 99.0 level; Treasury bond yields of all maturities fell (direct bullish factor).
– USD Index: **99.02 (-0.3%)**, ending a three-week period of stability (volatility) at the highest levels.
– 10-Year Treasury Bond: **4.55% ← 4.44%**
– 30-year Treasury Bond: **5.10%←4.97%**

Logic: **Weak dollar + lower real yields** → Gold (which does not generate returns) becomes more attractive → Capital flows back into precious metals.

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### 🏦⚖️ 3. Differences within the Fed’s stance have widened; the intensity of extremist rhetoric has declined (neutral factors tend to rise)
– “Dovish” faction (Williams, the third member of the Federal Reserve): Short-term inflation is high, but it will become stable in the long term; **The current interest level is sufficient**; the possibility of rising or falling is possible, which reduces market anxiety.
– “Extremist” faction (Muslims): AI will not reduce inflation; but **markets are less sensitive to hawkish rhetoric** → making expectations for a near-term rate hike unlikely to rise significantly again.

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