OANDA Market Overview on May 27: NZDJPY by Market_Vision1 — TradingView

Frankly, there are no major new details about the truce between the United States and Iran. But I think it’s also a positive sign that the attacks on Iranian ships two days ago didn’t escalate. The fighting has not yet returned to a fevered stage, the ceasefire is still in effect and negotiations are continuing, which in itself is a good thing.

Even from the Iranian side, we have not seen strong hostile rhetoric. Therefore, we await clearer information in the coming days. But I know very well that neither side wants a large-scale war to break out. Regardless of media statements about readiness to respond or escalate, Iran and the United States do not need to expand this conflict.

Even continuing the siege is in no one’s interest. Iran is losing huge amounts of money due to declining shipping traffic, while Trump and the U.S. government are forced to justify rising gasoline prices and inflation to their people. Central banks around the world are beginning to debate how long the energy price shock might last.

So, ultimately, things seem to be moving towards some kind of agreement sooner or later. It is true that the agreement was supposed to be announced on Sunday and there is nothing official yet, but we have to be patient and not rush. As I told you on Monday, it’s best to stay calm and not act prematurely or make hasty decisions. We only act based on facts.

If we look at the market’s reaction, we see that the market has gradually begun to price in the possibility of a real truce. This is evident in several areas.

U.S. bond yields are starting to fall, meaning calmer conditions are expected in debt markets. Gold also started to fall, trading around the 4.5 level, which also shows that concerns have subsided.

Even New Zealand’s central bank, which had preemptively raised interest rates three times in a row due to concerns about inflation and rising oil prices, decided to pause this time. They are discussing a fourth rate hike but keeping rates unchanged. If even the most stringent banks are starting to calm down, it means the market is seriously considering the possibility of its anticipated truce.

But as of now, there is no official confirmation, so we can only continue to watch and wait.

Today we will also hear the ECB’s stance on high oil prices and inflation. There will be no rate decision, just a press conference, but it will be important to understand what they are thinking now and what they are discussing within the banks.

Today we also have US ADP employment data. Labor market data is always important, especially at the end of the month as we have the non-farm payrolls report next week. As a result, we have begun monitoring U.S. labor market conditions more closely.

Generally speaking, if any important news or trading ideas come up during the day, I will share them directly with you.

As you can see, news is relatively sparse these days, and sometimes we can only summarize from moderately important news. But for us traders, it’s not bad. When there is no strong news hitting the market from all directions, work becomes calmer and easier, and we can quietly take profits.

I see you at the conference today and hope you have a great day.