Gold prices retreat from peak levels, steady near $4,500

Gold prices retreat from their highest levels, stabilizing near $4,500! Today’s trading method is as follows:

On Tuesday, the global spot gold market generally showed a trend of being unable to maintain its gains and then falling in shock. During the Asian trading session, gold prices briefly tested the $4,580 mark, but the upward momentum significantly weakened, and gold prices subsequently fell. Gold prices are currently trading around $4,521, with slight losses at the close of the daily chart. Frankly, this decline is not surprising as there has been a slight shift in market sentiment.

In the news, negative factors continue to accumulate:

First, there are signs of easing geopolitical tensions. The gradual progress in negotiations between the United States and Iran and the extension of the ceasefire period have led to a sharp decline in market risk aversion, which has directly weakened the rising momentum of gold. Secondly, recent statements by Federal Reserve officials have been hawkish, and coupled with strong U.S. inflation data, market expectations of interest rate cuts have been repeatedly postponed. High U.S. Treasury bond yields continue to increase the cost of holding gold, becoming the main negative factor currently restraining the rise in gold prices.

Daily Chart: Bullish momentum has faded, but a sharp decline is unlikely

Judging from the daily chart, gold is still in a high and wide consolidation pattern. Competition between buyers and sellers is fierce, and neither party can really control it.

Moving average system: The short-term (5-day) moving average shows a downward trend, while the 10-day moving average still has resistance. Gold prices are trading below both short-term moving averages, indicating that upward momentum at the daily level has weakened.

MACD indicator: The red column is shrinking and the fast and slow lines are converging, indicating that the bullish momentum is slowing down, but an obvious bearish breakthrough signal has not yet been formed.

Medium- and long-term support: Supported by the continued purchase of gold by global central banks, the medium- and long-term moving averages are still in an upward trend, limiting the possibility of a sharp decline in gold prices.

Conclusion: The daily chart generally shows a “slight downward consolidation” pattern. The main resistance level remains at $4580-4600. Failure to break above this level could lead to further declines.

Four-hour chart: Continued decline, focus on key support levels

On the 4-hour chart, the price of gold previously fluctuated upward in the ascending channel, but many attempts to break through higher resistance levels failed and gradually entered the callback stage.

At present, gold prices have fallen to near the midline of the Bollinger Bands indicator, and the short-term moving averages have formed a “death cross” pattern, providing resistance.

KDJ also formed a “dead cross” pattern and was at a lower level, indicating the possibility of further decline.

Main support area: $4500-4490. This level represents the previous consolidation area and is a key defensive position for buyers; so it should be watched closely today. A break above this level could significantly increase technical selling pressure.

Short-term chart (1 hour): The head and shoulders bottom pattern is still forming, but the upward trend is difficult.

On the hourly chart, all attempts to test the $4,580 resistance have ended in pullbacks, indicating that there is currently no bullish technical momentum. Although the initial head and shoulders bottom pattern still exists, the possibility of an upward breakout is very slim.

Unless there is a clear bullish fundamental development that prompts a breakout, gold’s short-term technical structure is likely to continue its downward trend with volatility over time.

Our strategy tonight is clear: continue to anticipate weak moves within a specific range.

The first support level to watch is $4,500. I personally expect prices to fall, but be prepared for a possible technical rebound from this level; don’t rush to chase higher.

Bullish resistance lies near the 4540-4550 level, close to the hourly moving average. If the price fails to break out of this range tonight, it is likely to fall below 4500.

Trading strategy for tonight: focus on shorts and avoid sharp gains.

The specific entry points are as follows:

Sell ​​at 4530 with a small position. If the price rebounds to 4550, increase the position size.

Place a stop loss order above 4560. As long as this level is not broken, the downtrend will continue.

Downside target: initial 4500 level. If the price breaks below and stabilizes, it could continue towards 4480 or even 4450.

The market doesn’t like indecisive people. Gold is currently facing an accumulation of negative factors and weak technical indicators; so buying at will will only bring negative attacks. Going with the flow is the key to success.

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