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◈ XAUUSD: Weekly recovery still faces pressure
Gold prices are attempting to stabilize after interacting with liquid buying territory at 4,498, but the broader weekly structure remains fragile. Kelly believes the current rally is technically significant but has yet to confirm a full move to the upside, while prices remain below the larger downtrend line.
Gold has attracted fresh selling pressure this week as the dollar rebounded, supported by expectations that the Federal Reserve may remain hawkish for longer. Meanwhile, mixed signals about the U.S.-Iran peace process keep geopolitical risks lingering, but not enough to fully protect gold from a stronger U.S. dollar.
⟡ Weekly structure
The chart shows that gold prices are still moving below the major downtrend line drawn from the previous highs. The market has broken out of its previous recovery structure and is currently trying to rebuild from a lower liquidity area around 4,498-4,500 points.
Interactions in this area indicate that buyers remain active, but the rebound remains limited, with prices fluctuating around 4,530-4,580. This means gold prices are stabilizing but are still not showing a clear continuation of their upward trend.
The bottom line is simple: Gold has rebounded somewhat, but has yet to regain its broader structure.
➤ Critical level
◌ 4,498: Buy liquidity and major weekly support
◌ 4,532: Current interaction area
◌ 4584: The first goal of recovery, short-term resistance
◌ 4,620–4,660: Area with strongest supply if momentum expands
◌ 4,440–4,460: Bearish danger zone if 4,498 fails
⌁ Elliott Wave View
From an Elliott Wave perspective, gold appears to have completed a brief five-wave downward sequence, reaching the 4,450-4,500 area. The current rally may be the beginning of an ABC-type corrective recovery, but confirmation is still lacking.
For the recovery to gain quality, the price needs to hold above $4,498 and push above $4,584 on stronger acceptance. If this happens, gold prices may extend towards the 4,620-4,660 resistance area.
If the price falls below 4,584 and starts to lose momentum again, the rebound may just be a correction before another bearish test.
▸ Read trend lines and liquidity
The downtrend line remains the main boundary of the weekly structure. As long as the price remains below it, the market will continue to trade within a defensive framework.
The 4498 area is important because it is close to the final liquidity response. If buyers continue to defend this area, gold prices may attempt to recover towards overhead resistance. But if this area is broken, the market may quickly fall back to 4,440-4,460 points.
⌁ Overall scene
Gold remains trapped between two forces.
On the one hand, the unstable geopolitical situation surrounding the situation in the United States and Iran may support demand for safe-haven assets. On the other hand, a stronger U.S. dollar and expectations for a more hawkish Fed continue to limit upward momentum.
For Kelly, the big picture explains volatility, but the structure of the chart still determines the trend.
⌁ Kelly’s POV
For Kelly, it’s an attempt to bounce back within a week-to-week structure that’s still on the defensive. A rebound from 4,498 is significant, but gold needs to recover to 4,584 for the recovery to be more convincing.
If 4,498 continues to hold, the market may try to push towards 4,584 again, and then 4,620-4,660.
If 4,498 points fall, downward pressure may quickly return, making 4,440-4,460 points the next important reaction area.
The weekly message is clear: Gold prices are attempting to recover, but larger trendline pressure remains in control of the structure. The rebound remains fragile rather than outright bullish until resistance returns.