The gold pair (XAUUSD) is currently trading around 4553, but the overall situation remains unfavorable for buyers. The price remains below the main descending trend line and has failed to reclaim the important resistance area near 4660.

In my opinion, the current rally is a test of the supply zone. As long as price remains below the trendline and does not form a clear higher top, sellers are still in a better position.

critical level
Resistor: 4650 – 4665
Sell ​​reaction zone: 4620 – 4660
Sell ​​Confirmation: Closing 3-hour timeframe candle below 4520
Target: 4501
Unconfirmed: 3-hour timeframe candle closed significantly above 4680

I would not sell when price is in the middle of a support zone. A bearish scenario seems more likely if gold prices rises to around 4620-4660, bounces off the trend line, and then falls back below the 4520 level.

Selling pressure may extend to 4501 at this point and even test this level further.

The current trend continues to be downward. Gold would need a clear break above the trend line and a close above the resistance area to weaken the bearish scenario. Until then, the first priority is still to wait for selling opportunities after rising.

This is probability analysis, not investment advice. If the price breaks above the trend line, the situation should be abandoned immediately.

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