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1. Momentum
Currently, D1’s momentum is still upward. Therefore, we may have another 1-2 days of price moving higher or sideways until D1 momentum moves into overbought territory.
H4 momentum is getting ready to reverse higher. Therefore, when the market opens on Monday, we may see a bullish wave extending about 3 to 5 H4 candles. However, with no data visible for two days over the weekend, it would be better to wait for the market to open for a more accurate assessment.
First half momentum is currently heading lower. However, since it is a two-day weekend, the current momentum in the first half of the year may not be accurate. Therefore, you should also wait for the market to open before reassessing.
2. Elliott wave structure
Wave structure on D1
Currently, we can see that the momentum of D1 is heading upwards. However, the D1 candle in this bullish cycle has not yet met the conditions for a new uptrend to begin. Therefore, it is very likely that we are still within the red correction wave Y.
If D1 momentum rises to overbought territory and then reverses, but price fails to break above the previous high of 4770, price may continue to fall or trade sideways until D1 momentum returns to oversold territory to build a new bullish wave.
Wave structure on H4
In the current structure, after the black 5-wave downtrend at 12345, the price started to rebound upward. Current momentum data supports the possibility of a 3-wave ABC structural adjustment.
However, this structure is still not fully understood. So I will still consider other possibilities, including the possibility that this structure is 5 waves. We will continue to monitor price action and rule out any possibility should sufficient confirmation emerge.
H4 momentum is expected to increase. So the blue wave B or wave 2 may have ended, or is about to end. After that, the next upwave could be a blue C wave or a 3 wave, depending on the momentum of H4 after the reversal confirmation.
Wave structure on H1
The blue wave B or wave 2 currently has the black 3-wave structure ABC. The target area where the black C wave is equal to the black A wave is located near the 4480 level.
After clearing liquidity, price broke out of the structure and climbed to the 4570 area, forming a black 5-wave bullish structure at 12345.
During this rise, the price formed the OB area at 4480-4495. This is also the OTE area formed after price expansion. We can see the price move back into this area and then bounce back higher. Therefore, below the bottom of this correction, there are a large number of stop-loss orders from previous buy positions.
Currently, the price is moving around this area, so there is a good chance that liquidity will fall below this bottom.
This creates a convergence between the wave target area of 4480, liquidity sweeping below 4489, and H4 momentum poised to reverse higher. Therefore, we would select this area based on H4 momentum to monitor the likelihood of the start of an uptrend.
On the other hand, you can notice that the 4590 area contains an area of strong liquidity that has not yet been captured. This area converges with the FVG area and the target area of the blue C wave, which is equal to the blue A wave. Therefore, this will be the area where we exit this uptrend.