XAUUSD Author: Kelly_Koou_Gold — TradingView

**XAUUSD: Can gold price hold the 4500 support level? **

Gold is trying to stabilize after the recent sell-off, but the structure still looks fragile. Kelly believes that the recovery is clear, but prices are still below the main downward trend line and the overall short-term pressure is still not convincing enough.

Technical structure

The chart shows that gold prices are consolidating above the short-term low of 4,528, with the broader 4,500 support area remaining a key defensive area. However, the price remains below the downtrend line and below the previous liquidity zone for buyers around 4,630-4,660.

This means that the market has rebounded but has not yet regained its structure.

The current settings are important for three reasons:

Price remains trapped below the downtrend line
The 4500 area is still the main support for defense
Recovery not yet strong enough to confirm trend change

Critical levels to monitor:

4,528: Short-term support
4,500: Major horizontal support
4,580–4,600: First recovery resistance level
4,630–4,660: Area with strong supply
Eliot’s point of view

From an Elliott Wave perspective, the recent recovery still looks corrective after the sharp downside. The market may be building a short-lived rally, but it has yet to show enough strength to confirm a larger bullish reversal.

A clean break above the downtrend line would improve the structure of the short-term recovery. Until then, we should be cautious about the rebound.

Fibonacci and Liquidity Structures

Fibonacci zones show that price is recovering from the lower extension zone near 4,528, while the current recovery remains below the 0.236-0.382 retracement zone near 4,561-4,580.

If buyers are able to clear this area, gold could extend to 4,596-4,612. But a break below the trendline brings downside risks, especially if 4,500 is retested.

What’s important next?

If gold holds above 4,528-4,500 and breaks the downtrend line, the rebound could extend to 4,580 and then 4,600.

If the price breaks below the trend line and loses 4,500, the bearish structure will strengthen again and sellers may regain control.

Currently, prices are stabilizing but have not yet reversed.

Kelly’s point of view

For Kelly, this remains a fragile recovery within a short-term bearish structure. Support around 4,500 is important, but gold needs a clear break above the trend line for a recovery to look more convincing.

As long as price remains below resistance, the market remains vulnerable.

in conclusion

Gold is consolidating above key support levels, but recovery remains limited. The 4,500 area is a key protection level, while 4,580-4,600 is the first resistance area for buyers to regain.

The bounce is there.
But structurally, gold still looks vulnerable until resistance is breached.