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Despite multiple attempts at a short-term recovery from lower support areas, the market continues to trade within a broader bearish structure. After last week’s strong sell-off, gold was able to stabilize around the 452x-455x area and form a temporary rebound. However, each recovery phase has faced strong rejection pressure near the descending trendline and Fibonacci resistance levels, confirming that sellers remain in control of the broader momentum.
From a macro perspective, the market is slowly emerging from aggressive recession panic pricing. While concerns about an economic slowdown remain, recent U.S. data has not been enough to fuel talk of a quick Fed coup. This environment continues to support the stability of the US dollar and limit the upward momentum of gold prices. At the moment, institutional flows appear to be more defensive and selective rather than aggressively bullish on precious metals.
Technically, gold prices remain trapped under an H4 bearish structure after failing to regain more liquid territory on multiple occasions. The current bounce from the support + Fibonacci area seems more like a liquidity correction within a bearish continuation structure than the beginning of a sustained investment rally.
The main focus is currently on the 459x-460x resistance area, where the descending trendline resistance overlaps with the 0.5 Fibonacci level. As long as prices remain below this area, the broader outlook still favors a continuation towards the lower liquidity area around 452x, and possibly even deeper into the 448x support area.
main scene
If gold prices continue to fall below the downtrend line resistance zone, sellers can regain momentum and extend the downtrend to the less liquid 452x to around 448x. Unless a stronger bullish continuation structure emerges, the current rally is still considered a technical correction.
alternative
If the US dollar unexpectedly weakens and gold manages to reclaim the downtrend line on strong confirmation from the candles, then price could extend a larger recovery towards the high-liquidity zone around 466x-468x. However, this is still not the main expectation given the current macro environment.
Short term deviation:
Bounce Down/Sell Round
Long run deviation:
From a macro trend and market structure perspective, it remains bearish.
lucas gray trading co.
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