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XAUUSD/H1: The market maintains its downtrend with price consistently making lower highs and facing strong selling pressure after breaking out of key resistance areas and closing the weekly candle below these areas, indicating continued selling pressure. On the H4, H2 and H1 time frames, the 34 EMA crossed the 89 EMA, indicating that the downtrend has reversed and the decline is not over yet.
After a sharp decline, the price retested the support area (4510 – 4520) and is currently entering a sideways oscillation phase near this support. This is a critical support area in the short term and will determine whether a technical rebound occurs or the decline continues.
This area (4586 – 4610) is the main resistance area and is the intersection between the Fibonacci levels (0.5 – 0.618) and the 34 EMA (1 hour time frame). Therefore, if the price rebounds to retest this area, the likelihood of a selling reaction here is relatively high. If the retest fails, it is recommended to wait for a candle on a longer time frame to ensure buying pressure returns to avoid a false breakout.
✅ Discounts
1. Sales scenario:
– If the price retests the resistance area (4586 – 4610) and fails to successfully rebound, it is recommended to look for selling points that match the current downtrend.
=> This is the confluence area of the central Fibonacci levels (0.5 – 0.618) – 34 EMA (1 hour time frame) and is a previously broken resistance area.
=> If the price declines and closes below the support levels (4610 – 4620), the selling momentum will extend to the lower resistance levels (446x and above up to 440x).
2. Purchase scenario:
– It is recommended to prioritize short-term buying only if the price stabilizes near the support levels (4510 – 4520) and breaks out of the short-term (1-hour) downtrend line.
If the price declines and closes above the resistance (4686 – 4610) and the candle closes above the 34-hour EMA, the downtrend will weaken, opening the way for a short-term recovery to (464x and higher to 470x).
⚠️The current main trend is selling, and the selling momentum may expand strongly. During periods when the market is volatile and a series of negative news affects gold, priority is given to trading in the direction of the trend, and waiting for an obvious breakthrough candle to confirm the trend before trading to avoid false breakthroughs.
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