Elliott Wave Analysis of Gold XAUUSD – OANDA:XAUUSD by WavePoint_FX May 15, 2026 — TradingView

1. Momentum
Daily frame momentum D1

The momentum of the daily D1 frame has now entered the oversold zone. This indicates that the current bearish trend is starting to show signs of weakness.

However, we still need to wait for the close of the daily bullish candle to confirm the reversal. If this is confirmed, we may see the uptrend continue for at least a few days.

H4 framework power

Momentum on the H4 frame is currently in oversold territory and is poised to reverse higher.

Therefore, if the bullish reversal is confirmed, we may see a bullish move lasting at least 3 to 5 candles on the H4 frame.

H1 frame momentum

The H1 framework momentum is also preparing to reverse higher. Therefore, in the short term, the H1 frame is also likely to see gains.

2. Elliott wave structure
Wave structure on D1

D1 momentum has entered oversold territory indicating that the current bearish trend is beginning to weaken. So far we are on the fourth daily candle, but the price has yet to move as we expected, i.e. break above the previous low.

This is still a preliminary signal that needs to be confirmed as there could be fresh strong downside selling pressure today or tomorrow.

However, this signal is also an important warning. If the momentum of D1 reverses upward and the price fails to break out of the previous low, a new uptrend could form, possibly towards the 4894 area or even higher towards the 5299 area.

Wave structure on H4

The willingness of H4 momentum to reverse upward gives us the possibility of the following wave structure:

In the next one or two candles, if there is a strong downward movement, the possibility of a wave structure

However, if a strong upward move occurs and the price closes above 4670, especially if it approaches the 4750 area, then we may need to change the way we number the waves. I’ll update the analysis if this happens.

Wave structure on H1

So far, the H1 wave structure still follows our previous plan. The important distinction now is that price is in the buffer zone to confirm whether the market is moving within a 5 wave bearish structure, or within a 3 wave ABC corrective structure.

First Scenario: Black 5-Wave Bearish Structure 12345

If this is the black 5-wave bearish structure at 12345, then price should break below the 4507 area.

This area is the W3=1.618W1 level, which is usually a popular target for the third wave.

In this case, the upward bounce in the fourth wave should not be too strong or too dramatic. The fourth wave usually bounces around the 0.382 level of W3, after which the price may continue to fall to complete W5.

Second case: ABC correction structure

If this is the 3-wave ABC adjustment structure, the upward momentum may be stronger and may approach the high of 4774, or even rise further to form a new high.

In this case, the current price area around 4597 would be an ideal target area to end the C wave and thus the entire ABC correction structure.

3. Overview

The momentum in D1 and H4 currently supports the possibility of a new long-term uptrend forming.

Therefore, we can consider buying near the 4597 price area.

4. Trading plan

Buying area: 4599 – 4597
Level: 4574
TP1:4650
TP2:4750
TP3:4814