GoldTrend_Master May 15 OANDA:XAUUSD Gold Trading Analysis and Strategy—TradingView

✅ 4-hour frame trend analysis
Looking at the four-hour chart, gold prices failed to continue rising after rebounding from 4500 to 4773, and have now entered a correction stage after falling from highs. At present, the price has fallen back to around 4670, gradually approaching the main support area, indicating that the selling pressure above is still strong and the short-term bias is bearish.

From the moving average, MA5 has fallen below MA10, while MA10 is trapped near MA20. The short-term moving averages are beginning to form a downward arrangement, indicating that buying momentum is weak. At the same time, the price is trading below the midline of the Bollinger Bands and moving towards the lower line, indicating a shift from the consolidation phase to a weaker correction structure. Focus on the 4663 support level.

✅ 1 hour frame trend analysis
On the one-hour chart, gold prices weakened further after consolidating in the 4690-4700 range. The current price has retreated back to around 4670 and is below all short-term moving averages, confirming the short-term bearish structure.

Structurally, lower highs continue to form and the rebound weakens. The price is currently testing the support area at 4663. The lower Bollinger Band is located near 4666 and the price is trading around it, indicating that the bears still control the market.

📊 Main structural area
● Upper resistance: 4685–4695
● Central region: 4670–4680
● Bottom support: 4663 / 4638

🔴Resistance levels
● 4685–4695 (short-term retracement resistance zone)
● 4720 (initial structural resistance at 4H)
● 4752 / 4777 (higher resistance area)

🟢 Support level
● 4663 (current main short-term support)
● 4638 (important structural support)
● 4606 (deepest defense level)

✅ Trading strategy reference

🔰 Selling strategy (short-term rebound)
👉Registration: 4685 – 4695
🎯Target: 4663→4638→4606

📍Logic:
● 4H frame price fell below the midline and entered a bearish correction phase
● The downward pressure on the 1H moving average is obvious, and the rebound is weak in sustainability.
● The 4685-4695 area corresponds to the resistance of the 1H moving average and the 4H midline, forming a common resistance area
● If the price fails to hold above 4695, the decline may continue

🔰 Buying strategy (long support)
👉Registration: 4660 – 4665
🎯Target: 4680→4690→4695

📍Logic:
● 4663 area is the common main support on 1H and 4H
● If the price consolidates after testing support, consider a short-term bullish rebound.
● But the overall structure is still weak and this strategy is counterproductive
● Need to enter and exit quickly; if the price falls below 4660, the buying strategy will be invalid

⚠️Trend prediction
👉If the price returns to the 4695 level: the short-term rebound is expected to continue → Target 4720 / 4752
👉 If price breaks 4663 level: Downward pressure may persist → Target 4638/4606
👉If the price remains in the 4663-4695 range: the market will continue to consolidate weakly, pay attention to rebound short positions

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