Global temperatures could hit record highs as likelihood of ‘Super El Niño’ increases

When El Niño forms in the tropical Pacific, forecasters pay special attention to an area known as Niño 3.4, monitoring three-month average sea surface temperatures compared to long-term averages.

A strong or “super El Niño” phenomenon occurs when temperatures exceed 1.5 degrees Celsius.

The forecast results of the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (EC), NOAA and BoM are basically consistent.

In the European Commission’s latest forecasts, more than half of forecast models suggest temperatures will exceed 2.5 degrees Celsius by autumn.

Johnson said any temperature above 2.5 degrees Celsius would be a “historically significant event”.

The BoM forecast also indicates with confidence that a very strong El Niño is likely to occur later this year.

Some forecasts even suggest temperatures could exceed 3 degrees Celsius, surpassing the currently known peak of 2.7 degrees Celsius recorded in 1877.

It should be noted that this was a very different era with limited observations, so there is still a lot of uncertainty in the reported temperatures.

El Niño lasted for about 18 months and triggered a catastrophic global climate event that caused extreme drought and widespread famine in Asia, Brazil and Africa, killing millions, while causing severe flooding in other areas such as Peru.

The last “very strong” El Niño occurred in 2015-2016, when the average temperature of Niño 3.4 reached 2.4°C in three months (November, December, and January).