Albie_Walker’s OANDA:XAUUSD Basic Bullish Logic — TradingView

📈 1. Strong breakthrough on the daily/4-hour chart, confirming the upward trend (basic bullish factor)
The daily chart strongly breaks through the 4700-point consolidation range. The 5-day, 10-day, and 20-day moving averages form a golden cross, which is completely bullish. The MACD also shows a golden cross above the zero line, and the trading volume increases, which effectively confirms the upward structure.

From the 4-hour chart, the Bollinger Bands are expanding upward, with strong support at the 4700 level. The price has steadily advanced along the moving average, forming reliable multi-layer support, effectively limiting the bearish space. Corrections represent clear buying opportunities, and the likelihood of a sharp decline remains low.

🏦 2. Global central banks continue to purchase gold to provide medium- and long-term support (mid-term fundamental support)
95% of the world’s central banks plan to increase their allocation of gold reserves by 2026. The People’s Bank of China has maintained a net purchase of gold for 18 consecutive months and adopted a bargain hunting strategy.

The 4500-4600 area represents the basic baseline for central bank costs; any pullback to this range will lead to concentrated accumulation of institutional holdings, supporting the upside and opening up prospects for further gains in the medium term.

💰 3. Capital flows + institutional short covering boost bullish confidence (financially driven gains)
The SPDR gold ETF increased its holdings by 1.36 tons. Short positions decreased and long positions increased on the Comex, reflecting active institutional short covering and overall net capital inflows.

Speculative funds are showing an upward trend, with increasing momentum and greater room for further recovery.

💵 4. Interest rate cuts are expected to continue, and the weakness of the US dollar still exists (potential bullish factors)
Although the non-agricultural data was better than expected, the market still expects an interest rate cut in December, and one or two rate cuts may be possible during the year.

The weak trend in the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields remains, providing strong fundamental support for gold in the medium to long term and maintaining a strong upward trend.