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Oil prices are not in a steady decline as shown on the chart, but have entered a complex depletion phase after losing their previous upward momentum.
But despite the current pressures, the market has not yet entered a true structural collapse, but is still constructing a delicate balance within a narrow downward channel.
But despite the current pressures, the market has not yet entered a true structural collapse, but is still constructing a delicate balance within a narrow downward channel.
The current behavior reveals a very important point:
The seller is applying pressure…but he doesn’t have full control.
The buyer retreated…but he didn’t exit the market.
This type of move typically precedes an aggressive move, as the market moves into a state of mutual pressure before oil’s fair value is re-established.
The area between 92 and 85 has become the main center of balance in the current movement.
As long as oil prices remain above this area, the potential for renewed gains remains, especially since the market is still respecting the accumulated demand area despite the recent decline.
As for the area between 105 and 110, it is the dividing line between a “slow recovery” and a return of real momentum.
Penetrating it and staying above it may open the way to:
119.53
Especially if oil prices manage to exit the current downward channel and recover significantly above 100.
On the other hand, a breakout of 85 and a hold below it would change the behavior of the entire market, as it would mean that selling pressure has moved from a temporary correction to a deeper repricing that could extend to:
76.75
Then 63.59
These are areas of historical need where long-term equilibrium may be reestablished.
Current forecast:
By far the most likely scenario is for continued swings within the current structure before attempting to exit to the upside, especially since the market has started to show significant weakness in the ongoing decline, although prices remain within a descending channel.
But any significant loss of the 85 area will delay any bullish scenario and push the market into a deeper liquidation phase.
Suggestions – Special Deals
As long as prices remain high, buying preference will persist:
92 – 85
Also monitor for any apparent breakout of the current channel, as this could be the start of a real shift in price action.
Additional purchases can also be activated after a breakout and gain greater stability:
105.24
Then 110.34
Expected goals:
110.34
119.53
As for a break above 85 and staying below it, it opens the way for further declines:
76.75
63.59
Oil now no longer moves according to traditional supply and demand logic…
Instead, it follows the logic of global struggles over pricing, liquidity, and energy, which makes the current phase more dangerous than your average art movement.
⚠️ Trading carries a high level of risk and may result in the loss of all funds. What is suggested here is analytical reading specific to the style
Mohammad Alkhwani
This is not direct financial advice. Decision-making, implementation and risk management are solely your responsibility.
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