OANDA Market Overview on May 8: USDCHF by Market_Vision1 — TradingView

Guys, let’s take a quick look at everything that’s happening right now in the Gulf region and the global economy.

Yesterday, the situation in the Strait of Hormuz became tense again. Media reports vary slightly in details, but the general picture is that a U.S. warship attempted to pass through the strait, Iran responded with firepower, and an exchange of fire ensued.

Iran, on the other hand, said it was the United States that violated the ceasefire agreement when it tried to allow ships to pass through the area.

Frankly, it is becoming increasingly clear that the Revolutionary Guards in Iran still operate somewhat independently of the official government. This complicates any negotiations, as politicians may strike a deal, but the question remains: Do they really have full control over the situation on the ground?

Currently, we are seeing the same scenario play out almost every time: positive announcements that a deal is imminent, then a draft peace plan emerges, then threats and escalation begin, then negotiations break down, and then everything is back to square one.

As for the market, it was slightly calmer than the previous period. Investors no longer have the same fears about inflation or the possibility of a major economic crisis. But that doesn’t mean the risk has gone away.

We have already seen a wave of interest rate hikes in some economies, and this wave of interest rate hikes is likely to subsequently spread to Europe, the United States and other developed economies.

If this happens, we may see a new difficult period similar to what happened in 2022.

Therefore, it is still very important now to continue the ceasefire, even if it is only partial. Officially, the truce remains in effect, and even the United States does not view what happened yesterday as a complete breakdown in negotiations and is still pushing for a diplomatic solution.

This means the door to negotiations remains open.

As for the tariff documents, there is also important news.

The U.S. Supreme Court once again rejected Trump’s attempt to impose a new 10% tariff on imported products.

Interestingly, the time between fees being announced and legal cancellation fees is much shorter than before. In the past, these legal battles took years, but now decisions take just months.

Clearly, passing broad tariffs without congressional approval will be very difficult, especially during an election.

So while uncertainty persists, markets no longer appear to have much confidence in the possibility of tough tariffs being implemented permanently.

Frankly, this is a good thing for a global economy that already has many problems.

The most important event today is of course the US non-farm payrolls data.

We will also have labor market data from Canada and the United States, with volatility expected to be very strong when the data is released.

Sometimes, the news brings us clear trading opportunities, especially when the numbers differ significantly from expectations.

If there is a clear opportunity today, I will separately send additional signals.

But overall, the economic situation remains mixed. Much of the data released this week was mixed. Even yesterday’s unemployment claims data sent both positive and negative signals.

Therefore, the market does not yet have a completely clear direction.

As for today’s jobs data, it could be a game-changer, especially for the US dollar and all assets related to it.

Of course, if any important news or surprising developments emerge during the day, I’ll post an update directly.

At the moment, markets react strongly to any political or military news, and sometimes just a headline can topple the entire market.

Therefore, we stay focused, follow the news as soon as possible, and benefit from these fluctuations as much as possible.

Now, we continue working normally.

I’ll see you at the conference 👍