XAUUSD Elliott Wave Analysis – OANDA:XAUUSD Published by WavePoint_FX on May 8, 2026 — TradingView

momentum

The current momentum of D1 is still rising, but it is already in the overbought zone. Furthermore, yesterday’s D1 candle did not support a strong upward move. Therefore, the current uptrend may be starting to weaken and may reverse in the next day or two.

H4 momentum is currently preparing to reverse from oversold territory. This reflection is very important. If the price cannot reach new highs when H4 momentum rises to the overbought zone, this will be the initial condition for the downtrend to be confirmed.

The first half momentum is now reversing to the downside. Therefore, on the H1 frame, we may see a bearish movement or a sideways movement.

Elliot wave structure

D1 wave structure

The current D1 wave structure has no new changes compared with previous days. The price is still in an upward correction phase.

But if today’s candle closes strongly above the upper border of the price channel, then we must consider the possibility of a stronger uptrend forming.

If the candle closes bearishly, the market is likely to continue its downward trend next week, completing the Y wave.

H4 wave structure

The price started falling after reaching the 4750 resistance level. But so far, this decline has only lasted two candles on the H4 frame, and the decline remains relatively shallow. At the same time, H4 momentum is in the oversold zone, and there is a possibility of upward movement nearby.

For the next scenario, when H4 momentum rises into overbought territory:

– If the price makes new highs, then we can consider looking for selling opportunities when the momentum reverses to the downside.

– If the price does not make new highs, we will most likely see confirmation of the downtrend. The momentum reversal point at that point will be the area where we look for a new sell setup. This scenario confirms a stronger downward trend than the previous one.

H1 wave structure

A structure similar to the black 5 wave has been formed, and the current decline has fallen below the bottom of the black 1 wave. This suggests that blue wave 5 may have completed, and also means that blue wave C and red wave X may have formed. The current decline may be the beginning of a red Y-wave decline.

However, from the H4 framework analysis, this decline is still very superficial. According to the H4 kinetic energy, there is still potential for growth in the short term. Therefore, we do not have strong confirmation of this situation yet, as it is possible that the flat structure of Rambo 4 is still under development.

Therefore, our trading plan will be based on the momentum in the first and second half of the year.

Currently, H4 momentum is in oversold territory and is ready to reverse higher. If first half momentum falls into oversold territory and then reverses upward while price approaches the liquidity areas of 4650 or 4597, we will look for buying opportunities in these areas.

If H4 momentum has risen into overbought territory, while H1 momentum is also in overbought territory, we will look for a sell setup if price approaches the 4742 or 4794 – 4815 liquidity areas.

trading plan

Buying area: 4651 – 4649
Level: 4630
TP1:4682
TP2:4742
TP3:4794